***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 10.4 28.0 17.2 106.9 61.8 50.3 10.5 18.9 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 12.2 27.4 18.2 125.4 67.9 54.2 15.9 22.9 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 11.6 25.3 17.5 106.4 66.0 50.1 10.8 19.2 25.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 21.2 26.8 17.3 100.4 62.2 49.5 8.4 15.4 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 21.2 25.2 18.0 109.2 62.7 50.3 9.3 18.3 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 16.7 14.9 19.3 96.6 57.0 50.1 9.9 13.7 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 20.4 24.8 17.7 119.0 67.2 52.7 9.3 17.7 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 29.0 31.7 18.6 99.0 58.7 48.4 18.9 25.4 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 12.1 24.0 18.8 110.2 63.1 49.8 11.5 18.6 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.9 14.6 20.0 102.8 60.1 48.8 8.7 11.3 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 18.3 19.8 15.3 98.3 57.2 48.1 7.1 14.0 23.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.7 11.6 15.5 94.9 57.4 47.2 6.6 8.9 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.2 18.6 17.5 99.5 61.7 48.8 6.5 12.3 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 15.4 31.3 22.6 103.1 59.5 49.2 13.4 25.6 32.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 5.2 11.6 12.9 83.0 56.1 46.0 4.6 10.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.9 12.0 15.7 94.7 58.6 47.7 5.6 9.7 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 9.9 27.5 16.4 118.2 68.0 54.6 8.1 16.6 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 21.3 19.8 22.9 106.3 61.3 50.3 11.4 17.6 26.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 9.6 25.7 18.3 122.2 67.6 53.6 6.8 18.8 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.5 19.9 20.5 99.1 58.1 49.1 9.8 16.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 8.3 30.7 18.5 112.9 65.7 51.0 8.0 15.6 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 11.8 33.2 17.5 121.2 68.7 55.1 15.3 22.0 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 8.9 23.7 17.9 111.6 65.7 50.8 9.6 17.5 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.1 27.1 21.0 106.9 63.6 50.1 14.7 23.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 11.5 25.0 18.6 105.7 62.9 49.4 12.6 20.5 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.2 12.4 14.7 94.7 58.7 47.7 5.2 9.2 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 25.3 30.0 18.5 107.1 61.5 49.5 9.6 19.9 32.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.1 14.3 15.6 91.8 57.7 47.5 5.5 9.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.6 24.5 22.6 104.2 61.6 50.0 12.8 17.3 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 21.2 26.3 17.9 117.8 65.8 52.5 12.6 17.0 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------