***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.4 18.3 23.4 126.4 68.5 59.4 5.9 13.1 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.2 25.9 22.2 132.6 70.5 59.2 4.3 9.1 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.6 23.8 23.6 129.2 71.0 57.8 6.5 13.6 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 10.6 24.0 22.7 117.7 67.5 55.0 10.8 17.1 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.7 15.0 20.7 112.4 68.0 53.1 6.8 11.1 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 9.7 15.5 20.1 86.8 51.4 44.3 10.2 14.8 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.5 16.1 21.4 130.6 70.8 59.4 3.0 7.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 14.6 28.3 20.9 101.7 60.3 47.9 17.3 24.6 33.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 7.2 18.2 22.5 114.7 69.0 53.5 8.0 14.3 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 8.5 25.7 23.0 109.1 65.4 51.0 10.2 15.2 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.2 17.5 20.3 104.9 63.8 51.0 6.6 11.1 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 7.4 16.2 17.5 94.0 58.4 45.1 9.3 13.6 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.5 14.9 19.7 97.5 59.3 47.8 6.2 12.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.1 32.0 26.3 118.7 66.4 55.9 13.3 18.0 31.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.4 17.9 22.0 120.7 69.2 54.9 4.0 10.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 7.9 16.8 19.1 96.5 60.0 48.6 6.6 11.5 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 11.5 18.1 21.1 128.8 69.8 60.1 4.1 9.6 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 11.8 19.4 24.5 107.2 62.8 50.5 15.9 17.9 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.1 28.5 22.3 130.5 71.3 58.8 3.0 6.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.5 22.1 23.7 106.8 63.2 50.3 9.7 12.9 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 8.1 18.7 23.6 124.4 70.9 56.8 5.5 13.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 13.3 16.1 21.0 126.0 70.3 59.8 5.4 11.2 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 13.9 22.3 22.1 124.9 70.5 57.0 3.6 9.5 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 11.4 23.8 24.4 113.6 64.7 53.1 13.1 20.7 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 18.4 20.0 25.8 124.9 70.1 59.5 6.0 13.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 4.6 10.3 14.7 77.7 49.5 38.6 5.9 10.4 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.6 16.9 25.5 127.3 69.5 60.7 4.8 9.3 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.7 16.6 20.1 107.5 64.4 51.2 8.2 14.9 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 12.3 29.6 25.0 109.0 62.0 51.7 14.7 23.1 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.4 22.7 22.8 134.8 72.0 59.1 6.1 9.1 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------