***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 19.3 22.9 33.5 170.9 81.2 74.8 12.4 14.5 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 16.9 21.3 24.4 144.8 76.5 67.4 5.0 9.8 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 15.1 17.1 24.3 129.4 71.5 65.0 5.8 9.2 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 18.1 28.9 25.5 128.3 73.2 63.3 9.9 14.7 27.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 17.7 26.2 24.8 127.4 71.5 63.9 11.7 14.7 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 14.1 15.7 22.1 104.8 59.1 54.3 6.0 12.1 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 14.4 18.5 29.2 171.6 82.3 72.5 3.4 10.5 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 23.4 29.4 25.3 103.2 62.5 56.7 13.0 20.5 31.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 12.7 16.4 25.6 125.6 68.5 62.5 5.4 11.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 17.2 18.3 26.3 106.2 63.2 56.6 11.5 14.8 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 14.0 15.9 21.7 107.0 65.0 57.8 5.1 12.5 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 17.4 18.9 21.4 110.1 66.9 59.0 8.1 15.3 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 10.9 13.2 20.0 99.1 63.2 56.3 5.4 9.4 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 15.4 16.0 23.3 97.4 57.7 54.7 9.5 14.1 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 11.4 19.7 21.1 115.7 69.1 60.1 5.9 8.9 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 13.6 16.8 20.5 111.8 64.5 59.1 5.8 10.8 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 12.0 15.1 25.1 155.5 78.3 67.1 4.3 6.6 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 14.7 14.2 25.7 106.7 61.5 57.1 7.8 11.9 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 12.0 18.6 21.6 124.7 68.5 62.1 4.8 9.2 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 16.7 17.3 22.9 92.0 56.5 52.5 8.4 14.7 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 11.6 19.2 25.7 131.0 70.6 63.9 7.2 9.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.1 12.9 21.0 127.6 69.8 60.5 5.6 9.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 10.4 13.0 19.9 109.2 62.1 56.8 6.1 8.8 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 14.7 17.2 23.6 111.0 63.2 59.3 7.4 12.7 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 21.6 28.3 35.2 175.5 85.6 76.3 6.6 9.6 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 12.8 18.7 21.8 116.5 68.3 60.7 7.1 10.7 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 23.3 32.0 37.6 187.4 87.1 78.7 5.0 14.6 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 15.2 20.1 22.2 114.7 69.1 59.4 9.4 13.6 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 25.2 25.0 24.0 99.7 58.8 54.8 14.3 21.9 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 15.7 18.7 26.0 147.0 77.9 68.6 5.9 10.6 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------