***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.4 24.3 -0.2 46.0 46.9 24.1 24.4 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 25.1 24.5 24.2 -0.4 44.1 45.0 24.1 24.6 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.1 24.7 24.6 -0.1 49.1 48.3 24.0 24.8 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.2 18.0 22.3 0.3 56.1 54.9 17.0 17.9 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 25.6 25.3 22.9 0.0 52.3 50.0 24.6 25.2 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 24.2 24.3 20.9 0.5 60.7 56.3 22.9 23.9 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 23.7 23.9 24.2 -0.4 43.7 44.9 23.6 24.4 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.5 13.2 21.0 0.0 50.6 48.3 12.3 13.1 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 25.0 24.9 23.5 0.1 54.0 50.4 23.7 24.7 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.5 21.9 0.0 52.6 49.4 24.0 24.4 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.3 25.4 23.1 0.2 56.1 52.6 24.2 25.0 25.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 23.2 24.4 22.3 0.3 57.1 53.3 23.4 23.9 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 24.2 25.8 22.3 0.4 59.0 54.3 24.3 25.1 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.1 24.3 22.6 -0.5 42.1 43.1 23.7 24.8 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 26.7 26.0 24.3 0.7 65.0 61.9 25.0 25.9 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 26.0 26.2 22.7 0.5 60.0 56.1 24.8 25.7 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 23.2 23.7 24.0 -0.4 44.2 45.0 23.6 24.1 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 23.5 24.1 21.0 -0.2 45.2 46.0 23.2 24.2 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.0 24.3 -0.3 46.2 46.2 23.5 24.3 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 18.5 18.9 18.4 -0.4 38.5 42.4 18.6 19.3 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.1 24.7 24.2 -0.1 49.2 47.9 23.8 24.8 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 23.8 24.3 23.8 -0.5 43.0 43.6 23.9 24.7 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.5 24.4 -0.1 50.4 48.4 24.0 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 24.5 23.9 22.8 -0.3 45.1 45.9 23.5 24.1 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 25.3 24.8 23.0 -0.2 46.2 47.0 24.0 25.0 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 25.0 25.3 21.9 0.7 64.5 58.8 23.9 24.7 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 25.0 24.5 23.6 -0.3 44.5 46.2 23.8 24.7 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 26.1 26.1 23.2 0.6 62.7 59.6 25.0 25.8 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 18.4 18.7 20.0 -0.4 40.8 43.4 18.1 19.2 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.2 24.3 -0.3 45.1 45.6 23.8 24.6 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------