***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 27.2 27.2 26.2 0.5 53.1 53.5 25.8 26.7 27.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 26.9 26.6 26.2 0.6 54.9 54.3 24.5 26.4 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 26.9 26.8 26.6 0.7 56.6 55.5 25.0 26.4 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 20.1 20.4 24.6 1.0 61.2 58.1 18.3 19.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 27.1 27.1 24.8 0.7 56.6 55.3 25.5 26.5 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 25.8 26.8 22.6 1.0 65.5 58.8 24.3 25.3 26.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 26.3 26.4 26.2 0.6 53.7 54.1 24.2 25.9 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.3 23.0 0.7 59.1 55.6 13.3 14.8 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 26.6 26.4 25.0 0.7 55.8 55.2 24.8 26.1 27.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 26.6 26.7 23.7 0.7 57.8 55.1 24.9 26.1 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 27.2 27.4 24.7 0.9 61.5 56.9 25.0 26.6 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 26.3 26.8 24.5 1.0 63.8 58.2 24.2 25.9 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 24.6 28.0 23.7 1.0 63.9 58.3 25.4 26.3 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 26.4 26.0 24.3 0.4 51.5 51.8 24.0 25.9 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 28.8 29.2 26.0 1.4 69.2 63.1 25.7 27.7 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 25.7 28.6 24.4 1.1 65.2 59.3 25.7 27.4 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 26.3 25.9 26.1 0.7 55.1 55.2 23.6 25.8 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 26.4 26.2 23.0 0.6 55.7 54.3 23.8 26.1 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 26.2 25.9 26.4 0.7 55.3 54.7 24.1 25.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 21.5 21.2 20.4 0.5 56.3 53.7 19.5 20.9 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 26.7 26.5 25.8 0.6 53.8 53.8 25.0 26.1 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 26.4 26.2 25.8 0.5 53.1 53.4 24.2 25.9 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 26.4 26.3 26.4 0.8 56.4 55.6 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.1 26.1 24.5 0.6 54.6 54.0 24.3 25.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 27.0 26.8 24.5 0.4 52.3 52.9 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 26.7 27.9 24.2 1.5 68.9 62.2 25.1 26.2 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 26.6 26.3 25.3 0.4 52.4 52.9 24.6 26.3 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 28.0 29.2 25.2 1.3 66.4 61.0 26.8 27.5 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.4 21.4 21.9 0.5 54.7 53.2 19.2 21.0 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 26.3 26.1 26.3 0.6 54.7 54.3 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------