***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.3 25.2 0.1 53.2 52.5 23.4 24.5 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 23.9 25.9 25.1 0.1 53.1 51.6 23.8 25.3 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.9 25.7 25.6 0.3 55.7 53.9 24.2 25.4 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.9 23.6 0.6 59.2 57.3 16.1 18.0 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 26.6 26.4 23.8 0.3 53.3 53.5 24.9 26.0 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 24.7 24.9 21.7 0.6 60.0 57.0 23.4 24.2 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 25.4 24.9 25.1 0.1 52.8 51.7 23.5 24.7 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.7 22.0 0.3 53.0 53.2 12.8 13.6 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 25.9 25.5 24.0 0.2 52.5 53.0 24.2 25.3 26.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.0 22.7 0.2 51.8 52.7 24.1 25.0 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 26.2 25.8 23.7 0.4 55.8 55.1 24.8 25.6 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 25.1 24.9 23.5 0.6 58.8 56.6 23.7 24.6 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 26.3 26.1 22.6 0.6 58.3 56.5 25.0 25.8 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.9 25.2 23.3 -0.2 48.3 49.9 23.8 25.4 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 27.6 27.4 24.8 1.0 66.0 62.2 24.3 26.8 27.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 26.7 26.8 23.4 0.7 60.5 57.8 25.4 26.3 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.7 25.0 0.1 53.6 51.2 23.2 24.6 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.0 22.0 0.1 49.3 51.4 23.4 25.0 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 23.5 25.6 25.2 0.1 54.2 52.3 23.2 25.0 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 20.5 19.8 19.4 0.0 46.4 50.2 19.1 20.0 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 26.1 25.8 24.8 0.1 51.6 52.3 23.9 25.7 26.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 26.1 25.7 24.6 -0.1 51.8 49.4 23.9 25.4 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 23.7 25.6 25.3 0.2 54.7 53.8 23.8 25.5 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 25.5 25.0 23.5 0.0 51.3 51.6 23.7 25.0 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 25.9 25.7 23.6 0.1 52.8 52.5 24.0 25.3 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 26.5 25.9 23.1 1.1 65.2 61.5 24.1 25.3 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.3 24.4 0.1 52.8 52.5 23.3 25.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 27.0 27.5 24.1 0.9 63.6 60.2 25.1 26.7 27.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.2 19.6 21.0 -0.1 47.4 50.1 18.6 19.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 26.0 25.8 25.2 0.1 53.7 52.1 23.6 25.4 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------