***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 21.9 24.4 24.0 -0.3 45.8 48.9 23.6 24.5 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 22.6 24.0 23.7 -0.7 41.7 45.4 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 22.5 24.6 24.2 -0.3 48.4 49.0 23.9 24.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 15.9 17.6 21.9 0.3 55.7 53.9 16.6 17.6 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 23.3 25.3 22.7 0.1 52.0 52.1 24.4 25.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.6 24.0 21.1 0.9 62.6 58.4 22.6 23.3 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 22.1 24.0 23.7 -0.6 41.2 45.8 23.3 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 11.2 12.5 20.7 0.1 50.6 51.9 11.8 12.5 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 22.7 24.4 23.4 0.1 51.6 51.9 23.1 24.3 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 22.7 24.5 21.7 0.1 50.8 52.1 23.2 24.5 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 23.3 24.9 23.1 0.3 52.8 53.8 23.9 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 22.1 24.0 22.1 0.5 54.2 54.6 22.9 23.6 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.4 22.5 0.6 56.0 56.1 23.6 25.3 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 22.5 24.2 22.3 -0.7 44.2 45.7 23.1 24.9 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 23.9 25.8 24.1 0.7 61.0 57.5 24.9 25.6 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 26.1 26.1 22.7 0.6 56.7 56.1 24.4 25.8 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 21.9 23.7 23.4 -0.7 41.8 44.9 23.1 24.0 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 22.1 23.3 20.7 -0.3 47.3 49.4 22.7 23.6 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 22.4 23.7 23.8 -0.6 43.6 46.2 22.5 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 19.2 18.6 18.4 -0.3 47.1 48.4 18.1 18.7 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 22.7 24.6 24.0 -0.1 49.6 50.6 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 22.3 24.0 23.1 -0.8 40.7 43.4 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 22.6 24.8 23.9 -0.4 46.8 48.0 23.4 24.9 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 21.9 23.9 22.5 -0.4 46.7 48.3 22.8 24.2 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 23.2 25.0 22.8 -0.2 47.3 49.7 23.6 25.0 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 24.8 25.0 21.8 1.0 63.1 58.8 23.0 24.5 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 22.1 24.1 23.3 -0.3 45.3 48.7 23.6 24.4 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 24.1 26.0 23.0 0.6 60.2 56.8 24.6 25.5 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 17.1 18.2 19.7 -0.4 46.5 48.0 17.5 18.3 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 22.6 24.5 23.8 -0.6 42.5 46.4 23.6 24.7 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------