***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.4 14.7 0.2 55.5 55.3 12.5 13.2 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.9 14.5 0.1 51.9 53.5 12.4 12.8 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 14.8 15.1 14.8 0.1 54.6 54.4 14.0 14.6 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.0 10.0 12.4 0.4 58.9 59.9 9.0 9.9 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 11.7 11.6 12.5 0.2 54.4 55.1 11.1 11.5 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 11.0 11.0 10.4 0.4 65.5 61.6 10.1 10.5 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.2 14.5 0.1 51.6 53.8 12.8 13.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.1 9.7 -0.1 45.5 47.1 4.9 5.4 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 12.9 12.8 12.5 0.1 53.1 53.7 12.1 12.7 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.6 10.7 -0.1 48.3 49.6 12.0 12.6 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.7 11.8 0.1 55.5 53.3 11.7 12.4 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.4 10.8 0.1 52.6 52.3 10.0 10.3 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.3 10.7 0.2 60.1 57.0 11.2 11.8 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.1 12.1 -0.2 43.5 46.5 12.7 13.3 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 14.2 14.0 14.0 0.6 70.7 67.7 13.1 13.3 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 13.0 13.3 11.5 0.3 60.2 57.9 12.0 12.8 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.4 14.3 0.1 51.1 53.3 12.9 13.4 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.1 10.0 -0.1 47.0 49.3 10.6 11.2 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.2 14.4 0.1 51.7 53.2 12.5 13.2 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.9 7.8 -0.2 40.8 44.5 6.7 7.0 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 12.7 12.6 13.9 0.1 53.7 53.9 12.3 12.6 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.5 14.1 0.0 48.0 50.1 12.2 12.5 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.0 14.2 0.0 51.4 52.2 12.1 13.0 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.9 12.8 12.1 0.0 49.0 51.0 12.2 12.8 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.1 13.5 0.2 53.8 54.7 12.1 13.1 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.6 12.0 10.3 0.4 62.9 59.1 10.8 11.4 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.0 14.2 0.2 55.3 55.8 12.3 12.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 12.0 12.0 12.9 0.5 65.4 63.9 11.0 11.7 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.0 9.1 -0.3 39.4 43.1 8.8 9.7 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.5 14.7 0.1 52.0 53.3 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------