***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.0 15.2 0.2 56.5 54.2 13.2 13.9 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.7 15.0 0.2 55.5 53.4 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.4 15.4 0.3 57.8 56.0 14.6 15.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 10.4 10.7 12.9 0.5 59.3 58.0 9.4 10.1 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.1 12.8 0.4 55.5 56.0 11.2 12.0 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 12.0 11.8 11.0 0.7 63.7 61.1 10.3 11.5 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.2 15.0 0.1 54.9 53.1 12.9 14.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.3 10.6 0.4 56.7 57.5 5.1 5.6 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.1 13.0 0.4 57.0 56.9 12.2 12.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.0 11.5 0.4 57.3 57.3 12.5 12.8 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.7 12.2 0.4 55.5 57.4 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.2 11.4 0.5 57.0 58.6 10.2 11.1 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.8 11.0 0.4 55.0 57.4 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.7 12.8 0.1 54.5 52.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.3 14.3 0.7 63.9 61.7 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.2 11.8 0.5 57.1 58.5 12.2 12.9 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.0 14.9 0.2 54.3 53.0 13.4 14.0 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.4 10.7 0.5 59.3 58.2 10.8 12.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.7 15.0 0.2 55.7 53.8 13.1 13.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.8 8.4 0.3 56.0 55.7 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.7 14.4 0.3 55.6 55.7 12.4 13.2 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.7 13.4 14.6 0.1 52.5 51.9 12.4 13.3 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.4 14.9 0.2 56.7 54.3 12.5 13.2 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.4 12.7 0.4 59.3 56.6 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.6 13.8 0.2 55.6 53.9 12.7 13.4 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 12.2 12.1 10.8 0.6 57.9 58.8 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.4 14.5 0.2 56.0 54.5 12.6 13.1 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.3 13.4 0.6 60.8 60.2 11.5 12.2 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.6 9.9 0.3 56.4 56.0 9.5 10.5 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.0 15.2 0.2 55.3 53.8 13.3 13.8 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------