***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.8 14.4 0.0 50.6 50.7 11.6 12.7 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.6 13.9 -0.2 46.5 48.0 11.5 13.0 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.3 14.4 -0.1 48.5 49.9 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.6 12.0 0.3 54.3 53.9 8.0 9.4 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.3 12.5 0.3 53.3 54.3 10.5 11.1 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.2 10.2 10.2 0.6 62.4 58.4 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 11.9 12.9 14.0 -0.2 46.8 47.9 11.6 13.2 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.0 9.6 0.1 52.9 52.2 3.7 4.7 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.1 12.3 0.1 50.9 51.5 11.5 12.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.1 12.0 10.6 0.1 52.5 51.9 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.8 11.8 0.3 54.7 54.7 10.8 11.8 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.0 10.1 10.8 0.3 57.3 55.7 9.3 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.4 10.7 0.3 55.6 55.9 10.5 11.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.4 11.7 -0.3 43.3 45.7 12.1 12.7 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.3 13.6 0.5 58.8 58.1 12.1 13.0 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.3 11.5 0.4 56.9 56.1 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 12.0 12.3 13.6 -0.3 46.1 47.3 11.9 13.2 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.4 9.8 0.0 53.4 50.8 9.9 10.3 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.5 13.9 -0.2 46.8 48.3 11.5 12.9 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 6.9 6.8 7.9 0.0 52.4 50.9 5.8 6.7 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.4 13.6 0.0 50.3 50.7 11.4 12.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.7 11.9 13.5 -0.4 43.5 46.0 10.8 12.3 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.4 13.7 -0.2 47.4 48.6 11.8 12.4 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.8 11.8 -0.1 48.9 49.1 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.6 13.4 0.1 52.0 51.5 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.2 10.2 0.5 59.8 56.9 9.9 10.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.8 13.9 0.0 51.1 50.9 11.5 12.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.4 12.5 0.4 57.6 56.4 10.7 11.0 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 9.1 8.6 9.0 -0.1 49.0 49.0 7.8 8.7 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.1 14.2 -0.2 47.4 48.5 11.7 13.2 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------