***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 98 2 100 12.4 12.5 13.5 0.2 55.3 54.8 11.1 12.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 98 2 100 11.8 11.9 13.2 0.2 53.3 53.4 11.2 11.8 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 96 4 100 13.9 13.7 13.3 -0.1 49.0 49.2 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 95 5 100 8.5 9.2 11.0 0.2 56.6 55.4 7.6 8.4 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 11.1 10.8 11.2 -0.3 44.7 45.0 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 9.9 9.6 8.6 -0.1 49.2 48.4 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 97 3 100 11.9 12.0 13.4 0.3 55.1 55.2 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 2.8 2.7 7.2 -1.5 20.4 21.6 3.5 4.6 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 12.0 11.4 11.1 -0.4 43.4 41.9 11.0 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 10.4 10.8 8.6 -1.1 28.8 29.2 11.0 11.9 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.3 10.2 -0.7 37.1 36.3 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 8.1 8.3 8.6 -1.0 28.6 29.8 8.5 9.5 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 11.3 11.0 9.6 -0.2 48.0 46.0 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.4 11.7 10.5 -0.6 36.7 36.3 11.7 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 13.3 13.3 12.9 0.7 66.9 65.1 11.7 12.4 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 12.1 11.6 10.1 -0.3 46.2 45.2 10.9 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 99 1 100 12.5 12.7 13.0 0.2 55.0 54.7 11.4 12.5 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 9.0 9.1 8.0 -1.1 26.3 27.7 9.4 10.2 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 97 3 100 12.2 12.2 13.0 0.0 50.6 50.5 11.2 12.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 86 14 0 100 4.9 5.0 5.8 -1.5 19.3 20.9 5.7 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 11.7 11.4 12.5 -0.2 46.5 47.0 10.8 11.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 99 1 100 11.5 11.5 12.8 -0.1 49.9 49.9 10.7 11.5 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 94 6 100 11.8 11.5 12.6 -0.3 45.1 45.1 10.9 11.7 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.1 10.6 -0.6 35.7 36.8 11.1 11.4 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 12.4 12.6 12.5 0.1 51.3 51.4 10.9 12.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 10.6 10.3 8.6 -0.2 47.8 47.2 9.7 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 95 5 100 12.1 12.5 13.2 0.3 55.9 55.3 10.9 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 10.7 10.9 11.6 0.4 61.6 59.5 10.1 10.5 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 6.7 6.5 6.8 -1.6 17.3 19.7 7.6 8.4 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 98 2 100 12.4 12.4 13.4 0.1 52.3 52.1 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------