***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 71.5 136.4 71.9 66.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 84.6 91.3 70.6 142.1 79.6 69.8 61.7 73.3 83.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 108.3 116.3 69.0 135.6 75.7 67.6 59.5 84.4 97.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 101.9 100.5 82.4 131.1 71.7 65.6 71.7 89.5 96.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 80.2 83.8 80.7 131.7 71.1 66.2 51.8 67.7 80.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 82.7 85.0 106.7 128.1 73.0 65.8 61.7 73.8 80.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 77.1 86.2 71.4 138.2 75.3 67.9 43.6 60.1 76.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 109.9 111.1 82.7 124.0 70.4 65.1 87.0 95.3 105.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 78.1 80.0 76.0 128.3 69.7 64.8 51.1 66.9 77.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 94.6 97.9 84.9 125.6 70.2 65.5 62.8 82.1 95.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 71.2 71.4 73.8 129.1 71.3 65.3 52.6 63.9 68.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 78.1 74.1 71.3 125.8 72.1 64.7 46.9 63.3 70.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 77.8 84.7 88.1 128.5 74.8 66.0 48.8 62.3 75.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 116.2 113.4 81.1 129.4 74.1 66.4 73.5 92.4 98.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 70.2 69.2 71.8 128.4 71.3 63.9 51.5 58.3 66.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 70.8 70.2 82.0 130.1 74.6 65.7 41.6 61.5 68.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 88.6 98.0 69.1 140.8 77.2 69.3 58.8 71.2 85.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 95.7 97.1 93.5 123.9 73.6 66.5 74.7 86.9 94.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 101.1 109.9 69.8 142.2 78.8 69.9 70.5 82.2 95.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 86.5 88.3 99.7 121.5 68.8 65.3 65.7 73.2 86.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 76.0 78.1 69.2 130.6 72.9 65.2 56.0 67.9 72.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 86.2 92.3 69.1 143.7 79.1 70.1 64.0 76.4 86.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 81.4 86.5 69.8 138.5 75.5 68.6 60.8 66.3 78.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 97.8 100.6 80.5 126.4 74.8 66.4 70.3 83.1 93.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 87.5 98.7 89.5 139.7 76.4 69.9 57.0 65.8 86.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 73.3 73.9 76.4 128.2 70.6 65.5 46.6 64.8 72.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 90.7 95.2 85.5 138.5 74.8 69.0 59.4 75.8 90.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 70.1 71.0 78.0 129.6 71.4 64.6 48.7 58.5 69.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 120.5 120.1 93.9 122.6 71.6 65.6 87.6 100.8 119.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 88.7 91.7 71.0 140.8 77.2 69.5 65.1 79.0 85.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------