***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 15.1 130.6 69.0 57.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 22.0 29.9 16.0 141.3 71.3 57.1 10.5 19.5 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 21.6 36.3 14.6 129.0 66.0 57.0 8.8 15.8 36.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 25.9 25.5 15.4 107.5 61.7 51.7 7.4 22.3 30.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.7 23.7 15.1 105.9 60.1 51.7 6.3 15.0 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 18.3 19.1 20.1 100.8 60.1 50.7 10.4 16.5 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.7 24.0 16.1 136.9 70.7 56.6 7.7 11.2 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 19.4 21.9 15.5 103.8 62.5 52.7 10.8 15.8 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 18.2 18.6 14.9 110.1 60.5 53.0 8.8 14.5 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 23.9 26.0 16.5 107.4 61.8 53.3 9.1 19.0 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 16.4 17.8 13.0 100.3 59.4 50.7 10.7 13.5 21.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.5 15.2 12.4 101.7 61.9 51.7 6.2 10.6 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.5 16.0 15.6 102.9 59.6 50.8 5.7 11.3 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 22.9 35.9 19.0 139.6 74.1 60.1 11.3 19.0 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.2 16.3 12.2 105.6 61.8 50.4 1.8 9.4 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.3 14.6 103.6 59.4 51.2 3.3 10.3 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 17.4 23.9 15.3 133.8 69.9 55.5 8.2 14.0 22.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 20.0 23.4 19.5 116.0 63.2 56.1 6.9 16.0 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 22.5 36.7 15.8 143.5 71.7 57.8 12.1 17.9 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 20.3 25.3 20.4 113.7 64.7 56.1 5.4 16.8 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.8 13.4 115.9 63.6 54.5 7.8 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 19.0 25.1 16.4 145.6 72.7 57.1 9.9 15.7 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 19.0 27.8 15.9 145.2 72.8 58.5 8.0 14.2 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 22.9 28.6 17.3 123.4 64.8 56.8 10.7 18.8 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 17.9 24.7 18.2 123.4 69.3 56.2 7.9 13.7 21.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.6 12.5 13.2 106.1 61.8 51.7 2.7 9.4 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 19.0 25.5 18.3 131.8 70.8 58.1 7.5 14.6 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.4 19.3 14.3 106.6 61.3 51.5 3.2 10.9 21.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 29.5 38.9 20.1 118.7 66.7 57.3 10.7 26.0 38.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 21.2 30.3 16.0 139.6 69.7 57.4 7.1 17.4 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------