***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 15.3 112.5 64.8 58.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 24.4 27.4 16.7 133.1 68.8 63.5 15.9 22.9 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 23.2 31.1 16.7 133.4 70.6 63.6 10.8 19.2 25.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 19.8 37.9 20.9 136.5 76.1 63.1 8.4 15.4 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 26.2 30.3 20.6 143.1 73.8 64.0 9.3 18.3 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 21.9 24.4 30.0 136.7 75.8 64.0 9.9 13.7 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 19.7 24.7 16.2 119.3 67.1 59.6 9.3 17.7 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 36.5 41.8 23.9 154.4 78.2 67.7 18.9 25.4 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 20.6 26.4 19.5 138.8 71.3 63.2 11.5 18.6 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 24.6 25.4 23.5 147.2 75.1 66.2 8.7 11.3 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 26.2 33.5 20.2 154.6 78.5 66.4 7.1 14.0 23.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 22.3 32.0 20.1 155.2 80.0 67.1 6.6 8.9 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 23.9 26.4 24.2 143.6 76.4 65.4 6.5 12.3 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 35.2 35.9 20.1 132.5 71.6 64.5 13.4 25.6 32.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 13.3 20.0 19.0 134.2 73.6 61.5 4.6 10.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 21.4 27.9 22.3 146.7 77.7 65.5 5.6 9.7 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 19.9 31.1 16.8 137.9 72.6 63.3 8.1 16.6 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 28.7 30.9 25.1 136.0 71.8 64.8 11.4 17.6 26.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 21.0 27.8 17.2 143.8 72.5 65.9 6.8 18.8 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 26.3 29.9 27.7 132.9 75.6 64.9 9.8 16.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 18.1 31.1 16.2 125.8 67.0 61.4 8.0 15.6 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 24.8 35.0 17.2 145.4 75.2 65.8 15.3 22.0 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 24.4 29.4 17.7 148.4 76.5 67.0 9.6 17.5 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 28.2 29.3 20.9 136.3 71.5 64.8 14.7 23.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 23.2 25.8 19.1 116.2 64.8 59.5 12.6 20.5 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 18.3 20.9 19.9 138.4 75.7 64.5 5.2 9.2 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 23.8 31.5 18.1 112.1 64.2 58.2 9.6 19.9 32.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 17.4 22.7 21.2 142.7 77.8 63.7 5.5 9.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 30.1 31.8 24.7 129.3 71.6 64.1 12.8 17.3 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 19.6 26.4 16.6 128.6 67.4 62.4 12.6 17.0 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------