***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 19.3 157.7 76.2 67.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 25.2 36.7 19.8 162.0 80.8 67.1 4.3 9.1 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 24.1 29.7 19.1 157.2 78.4 68.2 6.5 13.6 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 26.1 31.9 25.4 157.5 79.8 68.4 10.8 17.1 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 18.3 24.5 24.8 157.1 79.9 69.1 6.8 11.1 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 22.1 24.1 35.6 155.4 76.8 66.6 10.2 14.8 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 18.1 23.9 19.3 156.7 80.5 67.0 3.0 7.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 37.3 36.3 24.0 133.0 71.8 63.7 17.3 24.6 33.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 18.5 20.5 23.1 155.2 79.5 69.2 8.0 14.3 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 25.8 30.5 25.0 142.4 75.9 66.8 10.2 15.2 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 18.2 20.5 22.6 146.1 76.7 67.0 6.6 11.1 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 21.8 21.2 21.1 133.8 72.9 63.1 9.3 13.6 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 22.9 26.9 27.8 143.8 77.3 64.7 6.2 12.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 38.5 37.7 21.5 133.6 70.5 62.7 13.3 18.0 31.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 18.7 23.0 21.7 145.5 76.1 66.4 4.0 10.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 18.8 22.2 26.0 148.3 77.7 65.9 6.6 11.5 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 16.2 20.4 19.5 160.4 78.8 65.9 4.1 9.6 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 27.0 29.0 27.1 134.2 73.5 65.1 15.9 17.9 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 23.3 33.1 19.5 160.9 78.9 66.5 3.0 6.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.7 22.9 28.6 122.6 65.6 61.5 9.7 12.9 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 18.3 21.6 20.5 161.6 80.1 69.4 5.5 13.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 18.6 22.2 19.4 161.7 76.9 65.4 5.4 11.2 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 20.3 26.9 19.0 152.9 77.4 65.6 3.6 9.5 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 26.4 27.6 22.7 138.0 73.5 65.0 13.1 20.7 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 18.7 22.2 26.8 169.3 81.5 71.2 6.0 13.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 16.7 19.6 23.3 135.8 74.6 62.5 5.9 10.4 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 19.5 25.3 24.1 163.1 79.0 69.6 4.8 9.3 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 17.1 18.4 23.8 151.3 78.0 66.6 8.2 14.9 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 34.6 33.6 26.9 130.2 70.0 63.3 14.7 23.1 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 22.3 28.1 19.5 160.9 80.5 67.9 6.1 9.1 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------