***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 21.8 145.2 82.1 66.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 16.5 21.3 18.0 133.1 75.9 63.7 5.0 9.8 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.4 17.7 18.7 124.8 75.0 60.4 5.8 9.2 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 18.1 28.2 20.6 121.2 69.5 61.3 9.9 14.7 27.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 17.9 25.8 20.2 120.2 70.7 62.3 11.7 14.7 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 14.2 18.3 21.0 113.6 66.1 58.3 6.0 12.1 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 14.0 15.7 19.8 141.4 75.6 66.6 3.4 10.5 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 23.6 30.5 19.3 106.3 65.5 58.2 13.0 20.5 31.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 17.4 16.2 18.5 110.3 67.5 58.7 5.4 11.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 17.6 19.5 19.9 106.5 66.0 58.1 11.5 14.8 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 14.0 16.4 17.9 115.1 67.1 60.7 5.1 12.5 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 17.7 19.7 17.7 112.5 68.0 59.4 8.1 15.3 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.3 15.4 20.5 119.3 70.4 60.2 5.4 9.4 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.1 18.2 20.5 115.4 65.1 57.8 9.5 14.1 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 17.7 21.9 18.9 123.7 72.4 62.0 5.9 8.9 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.5 17.9 19.1 117.9 69.4 60.6 5.8 10.8 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 8.1 13.1 17.5 131.8 72.8 64.6 4.3 6.6 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.3 21.7 109.1 65.4 58.3 7.8 11.9 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.8 21.4 17.3 123.9 72.7 60.1 4.8 9.2 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 20.5 21.3 23.0 116.0 69.5 61.3 8.4 14.7 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.7 19.2 19.1 120.7 70.8 60.3 7.2 9.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 9.9 12.7 16.2 124.4 68.8 60.9 5.6 9.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.3 16.2 17.3 114.4 68.8 56.8 6.1 8.8 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.1 18.1 19.6 110.0 66.5 56.9 7.4 12.7 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 19.6 27.5 25.5 149.1 81.8 67.7 6.6 9.6 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 13.0 19.8 19.9 128.2 69.7 62.6 7.1 10.7 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 21.4 29.0 25.0 147.9 81.9 67.6 5.0 14.6 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.5 20.1 18.7 115.9 69.1 60.3 9.4 13.6 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 25.5 28.8 22.2 112.0 67.0 58.8 14.3 21.9 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 12.2 18.8 19.0 136.0 78.3 64.2 5.9 10.6 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------