***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 23.9 -1.1 30.1 32.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 23.7 23.8 23.5 -1.4 25.9 28.2 24.1 24.6 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 23.9 23.9 23.7 -1.3 27.1 30.2 24.0 24.8 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 17.0 16.9 22.1 -1.2 30.8 32.0 17.0 17.9 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 24.4 24.2 22.1 -1.4 27.5 30.2 24.6 25.2 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 22.9 23.0 20.0 -1.0 33.6 33.9 22.9 23.9 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 23.4 23.5 23.4 -1.4 26.4 28.3 23.6 24.4 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 12.3 12.1 20.1 -1.5 24.5 28.2 12.3 13.1 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 23.8 23.6 22.4 -1.4 24.2 29.0 23.7 24.7 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 23.5 23.4 20.9 -1.5 23.1 27.9 24.0 24.4 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 24.2 24.1 21.6 -1.3 30.4 31.0 24.2 25.0 25.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 23.0 23.4 21.2 -1.3 29.9 30.4 23.4 23.9 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 24.1 24.2 20.8 -1.2 32.0 32.0 24.3 25.1 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 23.7 23.6 21.9 -1.6 22.9 26.0 23.7 24.8 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 25.1 25.1 23.2 -0.9 34.4 36.3 25.0 25.9 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 24.8 24.7 21.4 -1.2 32.3 32.0 24.8 25.7 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 22.9 23.1 23.0 -1.7 23.3 25.1 23.6 24.1 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 23.2 22.8 20.0 -1.7 21.1 25.3 23.2 24.2 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 23.4 23.4 23.6 -1.4 25.6 28.7 23.5 24.3 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 18.3 18.0 17.8 -1.7 21.1 24.5 18.6 19.3 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 23.9 23.6 23.3 -1.4 26.3 29.6 23.8 24.8 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 23.4 23.7 23.0 -1.7 22.6 24.9 23.9 24.7 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 23.8 23.8 23.4 -1.4 25.0 29.2 24.0 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 23.3 23.2 21.8 -1.6 23.3 26.5 23.5 24.1 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 23.9 23.8 22.4 -1.3 28.4 30.7 24.0 25.0 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 23.8 23.7 20.5 -1.3 28.5 30.4 23.9 24.7 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 23.6 23.5 23.0 -1.2 28.1 31.2 23.8 24.7 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 25.0 25.0 22.6 -1.1 33.1 34.0 25.0 25.8 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 18.1 17.8 19.0 -1.7 20.7 24.7 18.1 19.2 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 23.7 23.7 23.7 -1.3 27.2 29.9 23.8 24.6 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------