***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 25.3 -0.8 44.9 43.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 24.7 24.9 25.1 -1.1 37.9 41.3 24.5 26.4 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 24.5 26.0 25.3 -0.9 44.9 42.8 25.0 26.4 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 18.2 18.8 23.8 -0.8 41.5 42.7 18.3 19.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 27.1 26.1 23.7 -0.9 42.4 42.7 25.5 26.5 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 23.5 25.2 21.5 -0.6 47.2 45.0 24.3 25.3 26.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 24.3 24.4 25.0 -1.0 38.0 41.5 24.2 25.9 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 13.0 13.8 21.9 -0.9 42.3 42.5 13.3 14.8 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 26.6 25.5 23.9 -0.9 43.8 42.5 24.8 26.1 27.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 24.7 25.3 22.5 -1.0 42.3 41.9 24.9 26.1 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 27.2 25.6 23.2 -0.8 41.9 43.7 25.0 26.6 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 24.1 25.1 22.9 -0.8 43.5 43.7 24.2 25.9 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 24.7 25.9 22.4 -0.7 45.0 44.3 25.4 26.3 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 24.5 25.0 23.4 -1.2 38.4 40.7 24.0 25.9 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 28.1 27.4 24.5 -0.6 44.0 44.5 25.7 27.7 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 25.8 26.4 22.9 -0.7 44.3 44.0 25.7 27.4 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 24.0 24.0 24.6 -1.2 35.7 39.6 23.6 25.8 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 24.0 25.3 21.6 -1.1 41.7 40.6 23.8 26.1 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 24.2 24.6 25.2 -1.1 40.3 41.6 24.1 25.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 18.9 19.9 19.5 -1.1 40.6 41.2 19.5 20.9 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 24.7 25.8 24.8 -0.9 43.6 42.7 25.0 26.1 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 24.4 24.7 24.6 -1.3 37.3 38.9 24.2 25.9 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 24.3 25.1 25.0 -1.0 42.7 42.0 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 24.3 25.2 23.4 -1.1 43.1 41.1 24.3 25.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 25.1 26.1 23.8 -0.8 42.5 42.5 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 24.3 25.7 22.3 -0.8 45.1 43.1 25.1 26.2 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 24.5 25.4 24.4 -0.8 43.4 42.4 24.6 26.3 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 25.9 27.4 24.1 -0.7 43.1 43.4 26.8 27.5 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 18.9 19.7 20.6 -1.1 40.8 40.6 19.2 21.0 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 24.1 25.1 25.3 -1.0 40.7 42.1 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------