***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 24.9 -0.8 39.9 41.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 23.8 23.9 24.6 -1.0 36.7 39.2 23.8 25.3 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 23.5 24.5 24.9 -0.9 38.5 40.2 24.2 25.4 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 16.6 17.3 23.2 -1.0 37.2 39.0 16.1 18.0 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 23.9 25.2 23.1 -1.1 36.1 38.4 24.9 26.0 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 23.1 23.7 20.7 -1.0 42.9 39.7 23.4 24.2 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 23.4 23.6 24.6 -1.0 35.6 39.4 23.5 24.7 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 12.3 12.9 21.1 -1.2 35.8 36.8 12.8 13.6 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 23.3 24.3 23.4 -1.1 35.0 38.4 24.2 25.3 26.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 23.2 24.2 21.9 -1.2 34.5 37.1 24.1 25.0 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 24.1 25.0 22.5 -1.1 36.7 38.5 24.8 25.6 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 23.3 23.9 22.1 -1.2 37.4 37.7 23.7 24.6 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 24.4 25.3 21.5 -1.2 39.3 37.8 25.0 25.8 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 23.7 24.0 23.0 -1.1 36.0 38.6 23.8 25.4 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 24.8 25.5 23.8 -0.8 39.8 41.4 24.3 26.8 27.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 24.7 26.2 22.2 -1.1 39.1 38.3 25.4 26.3 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 23.2 23.3 24.2 -1.2 33.6 37.4 23.2 24.6 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 23.0 23.4 21.1 -1.3 32.7 36.7 23.4 25.0 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 23.4 23.5 24.7 -1.0 38.2 39.7 23.2 25.0 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 18.5 19.1 18.8 -1.4 34.2 36.0 19.1 20.0 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 23.7 24.4 24.3 -1.0 36.2 39.2 23.9 25.7 26.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 23.7 24.3 24.2 -1.1 35.7 37.9 23.9 25.4 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 23.7 24.4 24.6 -0.9 39.1 40.5 23.8 25.5 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 23.2 23.8 22.9 -1.1 34.8 38.4 23.7 25.0 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 23.9 24.5 23.3 -0.9 37.1 39.5 24.0 25.3 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 24.1 25.1 21.3 -1.3 39.4 36.6 24.1 25.3 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 23.6 24.2 24.0 -0.8 38.2 40.5 23.3 25.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 24.7 25.5 23.4 -1.0 38.4 39.6 25.1 26.7 27.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 18.4 18.6 20.1 -1.3 32.8 37.0 18.6 19.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 23.6 23.7 24.8 -0.9 38.4 40.2 23.6 25.4 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------