***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 9999.0 0.0 22.4 -2.3 21.2 27.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 22.1 22.4 22.3 -2.4 23.2 27.4 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 21.8 22.2 22.3 -2.5 20.8 26.4 23.9 24.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 14.8 15.6 20.5 -2.7 19.6 23.8 16.6 17.6 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 22.3 22.8 20.3 -2.8 19.3 23.2 24.4 25.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 21.1 22.2 18.0 -2.6 22.9 25.1 22.6 23.3 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 21.9 22.6 22.3 -2.3 23.8 27.9 23.3 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 10.6 10.8 18.4 -2.9 19.8 23.1 11.8 12.5 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 21.9 22.4 20.6 -2.8 19.5 23.3 23.1 24.3 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 21.6 21.7 19.1 -2.9 19.0 23.0 23.2 24.5 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 22.7 22.4 19.7 -2.7 19.7 23.9 23.9 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 21.4 21.4 19.3 -2.8 21.6 24.0 22.9 23.6 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 22.5 23.0 18.7 -2.8 22.1 24.1 23.6 25.3 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 21.2 20.7 20.5 -2.7 17.9 25.7 23.1 24.9 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 23.1 24.0 21.4 -2.2 23.3 27.1 24.9 25.6 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 22.9 22.8 19.4 -2.7 22.0 24.0 24.4 25.8 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 21.6 21.7 21.9 -2.4 23.1 27.4 23.1 24.0 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 21.1 21.4 18.4 -3.0 18.5 22.7 22.7 23.6 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 21.9 21.8 22.3 -2.4 23.0 27.4 22.5 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 16.7 16.7 16.1 -3.1 18.2 21.8 18.1 18.7 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 21.9 22.3 21.5 -2.7 20.2 24.3 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 21.8 21.5 21.9 -2.5 22.1 27.1 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 21.9 22.2 22.1 -2.4 22.8 27.5 23.4 24.9 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 20.8 21.1 20.3 -2.8 19.4 24.6 22.8 24.2 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 22.5 22.9 20.7 -2.6 20.1 24.5 23.6 25.0 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 21.7 22.1 18.5 -2.8 20.2 23.6 23.0 24.5 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 21.5 21.9 21.6 -2.4 20.5 26.3 23.6 24.4 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 23.2 23.5 20.8 -2.5 21.8 25.1 24.6 25.5 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 16.4 16.4 17.3 -3.0 17.4 22.6 17.5 18.3 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 22.1 22.2 22.5 -2.3 22.6 27.5 23.6 24.7 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------