***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 22.8 -0.7 43.0 44.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 24.6 23.5 22.0 -1.3 38.3 37.0 23.3 24.4 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 24.6 23.7 22.5 -1.0 40.9 40.7 22.8 24.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 17.1 16.6 21.0 -0.4 48.1 47.1 15.1 16.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 25.0 23.3 21.3 -0.7 44.2 44.4 22.6 24.7 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 23.0 23.7 19.6 0.0 55.8 52.8 21.0 22.8 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 24.1 22.9 21.9 -1.4 38.1 37.0 22.8 23.7 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.2 19.2 -0.9 46.2 43.2 11.0 12.8 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 24.5 22.7 21.9 -0.9 43.4 42.0 21.4 24.3 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 24.4 22.9 20.1 -0.9 44.4 42.3 21.8 24.1 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 24.4 23.6 21.1 -0.6 46.4 45.5 22.2 24.2 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 22.9 22.6 20.2 -0.6 49.0 46.0 21.3 22.7 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 23.8 23.7 20.6 -0.2 50.8 49.8 22.5 23.6 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.8 22.8 20.7 -1.6 36.2 34.5 22.4 24.5 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 25.0 24.9 23.0 0.0 52.3 51.2 22.6 24.7 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 24.6 24.3 21.1 -0.3 50.4 48.6 23.0 24.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 21.9 22.6 21.2 -1.8 29.6 32.2 22.9 23.6 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 21.3 21.9 18.9 -1.3 38.5 38.1 21.5 23.1 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.1 23.2 22.1 -1.3 37.2 37.4 22.8 23.8 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 16.5 16.9 16.7 -1.4 37.2 36.7 16.9 18.2 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 24.5 23.0 22.5 -1.0 42.2 41.5 22.3 24.2 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 22.2 23.0 21.2 -1.8 26.0 31.4 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 24.5 23.4 22.0 -1.3 36.8 37.6 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.1 21.8 20.7 -1.4 36.7 37.0 21.6 23.8 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 24.5 23.3 21.6 -0.7 43.3 43.3 22.8 24.1 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.5 19.8 -0.3 53.5 49.7 21.8 23.0 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.4 22.0 -0.8 42.7 42.4 22.8 23.8 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 24.3 23.9 22.0 -0.1 51.2 50.4 22.3 23.8 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 16.3 17.1 18.0 -1.5 38.1 36.8 16.9 18.1 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 24.5 23.4 22.4 -1.1 40.5 39.7 23.1 24.0 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------