***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 14.5 -0.5 33.8 38.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 12.2 12.3 14.2 -0.8 28.9 33.8 12.4 12.8 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 13.9 14.1 14.3 -0.6 34.9 36.8 14.0 14.6 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.0 12.6 -0.5 35.3 37.3 9.0 9.9 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.2 12.4 -0.6 36.1 36.0 11.1 11.5 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.2 10.5 -0.5 36.0 38.2 10.1 10.5 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 12.4 12.7 14.3 -0.7 29.2 34.0 12.8 13.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 4.6 4.6 10.1 -0.9 26.5 29.2 4.9 5.4 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.1 12.7 -0.6 33.5 35.3 12.1 12.7 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 11.9 11.7 10.9 -0.8 27.7 31.0 12.0 12.6 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 11.8 11.7 11.8 -0.6 33.6 35.0 11.7 12.4 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 9.9 9.9 11.0 -0.7 29.7 32.2 10.0 10.3 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 11.3 11.3 10.8 -0.5 35.3 36.8 11.2 11.8 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 12.5 12.5 12.4 -0.9 23.2 29.4 12.7 13.3 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 12.9 13.2 13.6 -0.3 41.2 42.0 13.1 13.3 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.1 11.6 -0.5 36.8 37.8 12.0 12.8 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 12.7 12.6 13.9 -0.9 26.1 31.1 12.9 13.4 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 10.4 10.3 10.1 -0.9 24.2 27.8 10.6 11.2 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 12.5 12.5 14.2 -0.7 31.2 34.7 12.5 13.2 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 6.2 6.1 8.0 -1.1 22.1 24.0 6.7 7.0 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.3 13.8 -0.6 33.8 36.5 12.3 12.6 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 11.9 12.0 13.8 -0.9 26.3 29.9 12.2 12.5 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 12.2 12.1 14.0 -0.6 32.6 35.9 12.1 13.0 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 12.0 12.1 12.2 -0.8 27.1 31.4 12.2 12.8 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 12.2 12.1 13.1 -0.6 33.5 36.5 12.1 13.1 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 10.9 10.9 10.8 -0.5 35.1 36.7 10.8 11.4 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 12.1 12.3 13.8 -0.6 33.9 37.3 12.3 12.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.2 13.0 -0.4 40.0 40.3 11.0 11.7 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 8.8 8.6 9.3 -1.0 21.7 25.9 8.8 9.7 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 12.5 12.8 14.4 -0.7 32.5 35.5 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------