***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 15.9 -0.3 42.7 45.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.0 15.7 -0.5 45.5 44.7 13.2 14.0 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.4 15.8 -0.3 45.8 46.2 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.5 10.4 13.8 -0.4 38.3 43.2 9.8 11.0 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.0 12.6 13.7 -0.4 40.6 44.2 12.3 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.5 11.7 -0.3 42.5 44.4 11.3 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.3 15.7 -0.5 46.2 44.1 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.1 6.5 11.6 -0.5 42.2 43.5 5.7 6.8 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.3 13.9 14.1 -0.3 41.7 45.4 13.4 14.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.5 12.4 -0.4 42.4 44.4 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.1 13.2 -0.3 41.5 45.5 13.0 13.7 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.2 12.6 -0.4 41.0 44.2 10.9 11.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.6 12.8 12.1 -0.3 43.2 45.4 12.6 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.3 13.9 -0.5 42.5 43.6 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 14.4 14.9 14.6 -0.3 43.8 45.2 14.7 15.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.0 12.9 -0.3 41.6 45.1 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.2 15.4 -0.6 43.9 43.1 13.7 14.4 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.2 11.6 -0.5 42.8 42.8 12.1 12.4 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.1 15.8 -0.5 45.7 45.5 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.2 9.6 -0.6 43.6 41.9 7.6 8.4 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 14.3 13.9 15.1 -0.3 42.1 45.7 13.4 14.1 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.1 13.6 15.3 -0.6 41.9 43.2 13.2 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.8 15.5 -0.4 46.5 46.1 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.7 13.7 -0.4 43.3 44.5 13.6 13.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.3 14.3 -0.4 41.4 44.7 13.2 13.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 12.1 12.0 12.1 -0.5 38.9 42.6 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.6 15.1 -0.4 41.8 44.9 13.2 13.9 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.8 14.1 -0.4 40.6 43.8 12.4 13.0 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.6 10.8 -0.6 42.8 42.0 9.4 11.1 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.4 15.9 -0.5 45.7 45.2 13.7 14.4 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------