***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 15.2 -0.4 43.2 44.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.0 15.1 -0.6 40.3 41.5 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.2 15.1 -0.5 44.9 43.6 14.6 15.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.5 9.9 13.2 -0.5 41.1 42.6 9.4 10.1 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.8 13.0 -0.6 41.1 42.0 11.2 12.0 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 10.2 10.5 11.0 -0.5 40.2 43.1 10.3 11.5 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.2 15.1 -0.6 37.8 41.3 12.9 14.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.1 10.9 -0.8 34.4 37.4 5.1 5.6 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.2 12.4 13.3 -0.6 40.6 41.7 12.2 12.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.5 11.7 -0.7 36.7 38.9 12.5 12.8 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.2 12.5 -0.5 40.6 42.2 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.4 10.5 11.8 -0.6 36.5 39.7 10.2 11.1 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 11.5 11.9 11.4 -0.4 38.4 42.9 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.3 13.3 -0.6 36.1 39.5 13.3 13.6 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.7 14.0 -0.4 44.9 45.1 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 12.2 12.5 12.2 -0.4 41.3 43.6 12.2 12.9 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 13.1 13.7 14.7 -0.8 37.9 39.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 10.6 10.8 10.9 -0.8 32.0 37.2 10.8 12.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.4 15.1 -0.6 42.1 42.5 13.1 13.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.7 6.6 9.0 -0.9 31.0 35.8 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.0 14.4 -0.5 43.6 43.2 12.4 13.2 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 12.4 12.9 14.6 -0.7 38.0 40.1 12.4 13.3 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.6 12.6 14.8 -0.5 42.2 43.0 12.5 13.2 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.5 12.7 13.0 -0.6 36.3 39.9 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.2 13.7 -0.5 40.7 42.8 12.7 13.4 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.8 11.5 -0.5 42.7 42.4 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.6 12.9 14.5 -0.5 41.5 43.4 12.6 13.1 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.0 13.5 -0.4 43.5 44.5 11.5 12.2 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.4 9.4 10.1 -0.8 30.9 36.6 9.5 10.5 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 14.1 13.4 15.2 -0.6 40.7 42.4 13.3 13.8 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------