***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.5 -1.2 30.3 35.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 13.3 11.5 13.4 -1.2 32.8 34.3 11.5 13.0 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 13.1 13.2 13.3 -1.2 30.0 34.7 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.9 7.7 11.6 -1.2 27.7 33.7 8.0 9.4 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 9.9 10.3 11.3 -1.3 28.5 32.8 10.5 11.1 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 9.2 8.9 9.5 -1.2 27.5 32.8 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 13.4 11.6 13.4 -1.2 33.1 34.9 11.6 13.2 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 3.6 3.4 9.2 -1.5 22.2 28.3 3.7 4.7 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 10.8 11.2 11.7 -1.2 28.0 32.9 11.5 12.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 10.8 11.0 10.0 -1.4 23.8 30.2 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 10.8 10.4 10.8 -1.3 27.1 32.4 10.8 11.8 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 8.9 8.4 10.1 -1.4 23.8 30.0 9.3 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 10.4 10.3 9.7 -1.3 28.1 31.0 10.5 11.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 11.6 11.5 11.5 -1.4 23.7 30.0 12.1 12.7 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 12.2 12.0 12.4 -0.9 32.1 36.8 12.1 13.0 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 11.2 11.1 10.5 -1.2 27.9 32.9 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 12.0 12.0 13.1 -1.3 34.0 34.8 11.9 13.2 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 9.4 9.4 9.2 -1.5 20.7 28.3 9.9 10.3 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 11.7 11.5 13.4 -1.2 32.2 34.3 11.5 12.9 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 5.0 4.7 7.2 -1.9 18.9 24.3 5.8 6.7 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 11.1 11.3 12.7 -1.2 29.2 33.9 11.4 12.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 11.2 10.7 13.0 -1.3 30.1 33.5 10.8 12.3 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 11.3 11.6 13.1 -1.2 30.6 33.9 11.8 12.4 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 10.9 10.4 11.3 -1.3 25.2 31.1 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 11.2 10.6 11.9 -1.3 25.2 32.5 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 10.0 9.7 9.5 -1.5 25.1 27.5 9.9 10.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 11.4 10.9 12.7 -1.3 27.3 33.8 11.5 12.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 10.0 10.4 11.9 -1.0 29.4 35.4 10.7 11.0 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 7.5 7.2 8.4 -1.6 19.8 27.0 7.8 8.7 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.4 11.6 13.5 -1.2 32.0 34.5 11.7 13.2 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------