***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 13.4 -0.2 47.0 47.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.4 12.7 -0.7 40.6 40.3 11.2 11.8 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 14.0 13.3 13.1 -0.3 45.0 44.5 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 8.7 8.8 11.6 0.0 51.7 50.0 7.6 8.4 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 11.2 11.0 11.6 -0.1 49.3 48.1 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 9.9 10.1 9.6 0.1 57.9 54.6 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 12.2 11.7 12.8 -0.6 41.0 41.5 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.9 4.0 8.6 -0.7 42.0 39.9 3.5 4.6 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.5 11.7 -0.3 47.7 45.5 11.0 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.5 9.7 -0.6 42.2 40.7 11.0 11.9 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 11.8 11.5 10.6 -0.5 43.0 42.6 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 9.8 9.4 9.5 -0.6 44.4 42.3 8.5 9.5 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 11.3 11.4 10.0 -0.1 54.7 51.9 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.4 11.8 11.1 -0.8 39.6 37.1 11.7 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 12.6 12.8 13.2 0.3 56.3 55.7 11.7 12.4 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 12.1 12.0 10.7 -0.1 50.9 50.3 10.9 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 12.8 11.5 12.2 -0.9 34.7 37.8 11.4 12.5 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.7 8.6 -0.8 36.7 36.9 9.4 10.2 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 12.4 11.7 12.7 -0.6 42.3 41.2 11.2 12.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.3 5.7 6.3 -1.0 31.1 32.5 5.7 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 11.8 11.5 12.9 -0.2 47.6 46.6 10.8 11.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.9 10.9 12.1 -0.9 34.8 36.5 10.7 11.5 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 11.9 11.5 12.7 -0.4 44.1 43.3 10.9 11.7 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.1 10.9 -0.6 40.8 40.1 11.1 11.4 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 12.5 12.5 12.5 -0.1 50.7 48.7 10.9 12.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 10.7 11.0 10.0 0.4 63.5 60.6 9.7 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 12.2 11.9 13.0 -0.1 48.5 48.4 10.9 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 10.8 10.6 12.3 0.2 54.9 54.1 10.1 10.5 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.3 7.6 7.7 -0.9 30.6 33.6 7.6 8.4 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 12.6 11.7 13.1 -0.5 43.9 42.9 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------