***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 76.9 97.4 65.6 128.4 72.2 62.3 55.3 69.9 87.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 76.4 84.5 60.2 118.7 67.4 58.7 61.2 72.4 84.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 83.0 100.1 60.2 113.9 68.2 58.0 61.3 76.8 96.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 98.6 107.6 79.7 127.6 74.7 64.0 72.0 80.1 92.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 70.3 77.5 73.9 121.3 68.5 60.2 57.3 65.4 77.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 83.7 84.7 101.8 125.3 70.9 63.9 60.6 74.6 82.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 64.9 83.7 63.3 123.9 72.0 61.9 43.6 59.8 74.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 102.0 106.2 79.0 120.8 67.0 62.0 89.6 96.5 105.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 69.5 79.1 73.3 121.6 69.1 59.8 51.0 65.7 76.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 80.9 87.9 82.9 118.0 67.3 60.3 63.2 75.5 85.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 65.7 71.0 64.1 116.4 67.0 59.7 52.3 62.9 70.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 67.3 68.0 63.8 121.9 68.0 61.8 44.9 64.0 67.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 78.4 85.5 80.8 125.7 73.0 64.0 46.5 61.4 75.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 75.4 96.0 71.3 102.5 63.4 52.4 74.6 91.2 96.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 70.5 74.8 77.0 134.4 75.9 67.3 47.2 59.2 68.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 73.7 71.8 72.7 121.8 71.4 62.2 38.9 62.3 70.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 77.2 89.0 57.0 117.2 68.1 57.9 60.2 71.0 86.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 86.9 91.2 93.8 114.3 67.7 59.6 71.3 84.0 90.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 85.1 95.8 60.0 117.7 68.1 58.4 71.3 79.3 94.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 78.6 87.0 97.1 118.9 68.0 61.3 66.4 75.0 83.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 69.9 74.7 62.7 118.1 67.1 58.2 56.0 67.0 73.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 76.5 82.3 58.1 120.2 68.5 58.7 63.9 72.7 81.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 67.2 74.8 61.6 114.9 69.2 57.3 56.1 64.5 73.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 86.6 90.0 76.1 107.4 65.2 56.2 70.8 82.8 90.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 84.3 89.3 83.6 130.3 73.8 64.6 55.8 66.3 80.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 64.4 68.8 67.2 123.9 67.2 61.8 43.5 61.5 68.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 90.8 98.2 81.7 135.1 76.1 66.4 54.7 73.1 87.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 70.2 73.0 77.5 129.9 75.8 65.3 53.6 57.5 67.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 103.8 119.3 92.6 112.9 65.2 58.8 89.2 97.6 120.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 78.8 86.5 61.5 119.3 68.5 59.8 65.8 75.9 83.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------