***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 29.0 37.5 14.2 157.5 78.7 65.4 3.4 15.0 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 22.3 29.5 12.3 118.3 71.5 56.7 11.6 20.1 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.5 38.0 13.2 130.2 72.9 59.4 5.6 11.8 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 18.7 25.5 16.1 133.5 69.9 60.0 8.2 14.5 19.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 16.2 25.9 15.5 129.8 70.6 58.5 6.4 13.3 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 22.6 23.9 23.4 141.6 75.5 64.3 11.6 19.0 21.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 21.8 27.7 13.5 130.0 76.7 60.4 7.3 10.1 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 19.9 30.5 18.3 125.0 71.6 56.7 10.4 15.4 28.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.6 29.1 15.6 131.2 72.2 58.6 5.7 11.3 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 20.1 28.8 19.0 125.2 69.9 56.6 7.3 15.3 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 19.0 26.9 14.5 137.0 74.8 57.8 10.5 16.5 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.1 14.8 14.5 134.1 76.6 58.4 5.5 7.4 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 21.5 28.7 18.9 150.1 80.1 63.9 5.7 10.1 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 18.6 21.9 16.9 113.5 67.6 54.0 10.8 13.9 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 9.7 23.0 15.4 152.4 76.6 62.6 1.1 6.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 17.7 21.3 16.5 143.6 75.9 61.9 4.4 8.6 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.2 26.9 11.8 119.1 70.9 56.9 6.5 11.4 23.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.1 25.9 22.4 121.8 67.7 56.7 4.0 13.3 25.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 23.1 25.3 11.9 112.5 67.4 53.9 13.5 19.7 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 18.2 28.2 23.5 123.8 70.5 56.8 6.7 14.5 27.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.5 32.9 13.8 142.0 76.2 60.2 7.8 11.8 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 17.8 19.6 12.1 117.4 66.1 53.7 10.1 16.0 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 18.8 18.3 12.2 106.7 64.5 52.2 8.0 14.9 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 20.4 26.4 17.9 119.2 68.2 56.4 7.4 17.3 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.4 19.4 18.0 153.3 74.8 65.0 7.6 11.5 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.3 28.7 14.2 133.5 79.0 63.2 1.7 8.3 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 25.1 34.5 17.5 161.2 77.9 66.6 5.0 11.1 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 17.1 30.4 15.6 136.6 71.9 60.5 2.7 13.7 23.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 26.4 39.7 22.6 121.2 70.1 55.9 9.2 20.7 32.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 28.3 29.4 12.9 125.5 72.3 59.3 10.9 19.8 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------