***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 21.3 33.4 16.2 131.5 75.8 59.0 8.5 17.3 27.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 23.3 28.8 16.8 129.1 72.2 59.2 13.6 21.0 26.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 26.8 47.5 16.4 119.0 74.1 59.0 10.2 19.9 26.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 32.0 37.7 21.9 137.1 75.5 64.1 9.0 19.6 27.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 25.1 28.3 20.0 132.7 76.1 63.2 11.8 18.3 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 18.6 18.3 30.0 134.1 70.8 63.1 11.5 14.3 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 20.9 26.9 17.4 140.6 74.9 61.4 8.9 18.3 24.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 35.6 38.9 22.0 132.5 75.1 64.3 21.5 25.5 33.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 23.4 32.4 18.3 121.9 78.8 60.3 10.8 21.3 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 26.4 29.4 22.3 123.3 74.8 62.1 8.9 13.1 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 23.9 25.9 17.1 127.9 74.9 63.8 9.6 14.2 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 20.7 26.4 17.4 137.4 76.7 65.2 6.3 9.6 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 19.5 20.9 23.9 141.0 75.1 65.7 8.0 12.6 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 35.2 38.2 22.4 115.4 72.1 56.9 15.4 31.7 36.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 17.0 19.7 19.8 130.4 76.6 62.2 5.5 11.1 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 20.3 25.4 20.8 137.2 74.7 64.7 6.4 10.1 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 23.8 37.4 16.0 129.3 74.0 59.3 10.4 18.1 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 30.2 30.9 26.8 120.9 71.5 60.6 13.9 20.0 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 26.2 35.4 16.5 123.6 71.7 58.3 10.5 19.8 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 26.6 30.2 29.0 128.4 70.9 63.1 9.3 16.3 25.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 18.5 30.5 15.3 116.9 77.0 58.6 9.4 14.9 20.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 25.6 36.8 15.5 126.0 73.7 59.6 16.6 22.0 31.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 19.8 28.3 17.3 119.5 73.3 57.1 13.1 16.8 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 28.9 33.9 22.0 114.7 72.3 58.3 14.3 25.6 31.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 26.8 28.4 21.4 131.7 74.3 61.1 12.6 20.3 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 20.8 23.7 19.7 139.9 75.2 65.7 4.7 10.2 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 27.9 32.8 20.4 137.4 76.2 61.5 8.6 18.1 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 17.6 21.5 21.0 134.5 75.6 63.4 5.8 10.1 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 25.6 34.3 27.0 120.9 70.8 60.6 12.8 21.4 31.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 21.5 31.5 16.9 128.0 73.9 59.8 11.9 17.9 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------