***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 16.4 30.0 26.4 237.2 87.1 75.4 5.8 8.6 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 25.5 33.9 23.4 214.2 82.1 73.1 3.0 7.8 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 19.9 25.4 23.3 202.3 83.9 72.9 5.4 11.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 25.3 32.7 30.8 206.7 82.6 74.8 9.9 15.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 14.9 23.1 29.0 195.4 82.1 73.0 6.7 10.1 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 21.2 25.3 38.4 167.5 79.3 71.9 10.8 14.4 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 17.7 26.4 24.4 222.4 83.3 73.6 3.0 4.6 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 37.4 43.2 29.6 176.0 78.3 71.6 14.9 24.1 36.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 17.5 20.9 29.8 207.1 84.7 73.8 8.6 12.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 22.7 27.7 32.0 187.0 79.3 72.6 7.8 12.5 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 16.4 19.8 24.7 173.7 80.3 71.1 8.0 11.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 18.1 21.2 24.3 171.3 79.6 70.9 9.0 12.9 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 17.6 21.4 29.9 165.8 77.7 70.8 6.2 12.4 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 37.2 48.7 26.5 180.4 79.8 68.1 11.3 15.6 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 21.7 31.3 30.6 217.9 84.8 76.5 6.2 11.9 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 16.9 22.3 27.1 167.4 78.9 71.1 5.4 8.6 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 14.8 18.7 22.5 220.0 82.5 72.7 3.9 8.3 10.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 24.5 27.6 35.0 174.9 76.7 71.4 13.2 17.0 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 19.4 28.3 23.1 208.9 82.9 73.2 2.1 7.6 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 21.1 25.3 34.7 162.3 75.8 69.8 9.4 13.3 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 15.7 21.8 25.6 217.0 85.2 73.0 5.7 10.4 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 21.0 40.3 22.8 219.1 87.6 73.5 5.8 10.8 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 19.0 27.5 23.3 201.7 82.4 72.6 3.9 7.8 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 26.3 29.2 28.4 176.9 79.2 70.6 11.4 19.5 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 18.8 24.4 33.4 238.4 87.7 77.5 5.8 11.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 17.4 25.3 26.5 184.0 81.6 71.6 6.8 9.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 21.3 29.2 32.7 246.1 88.9 78.4 4.8 7.6 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 18.2 20.5 30.1 199.6 82.9 74.1 9.6 14.8 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 31.2 34.9 33.8 167.0 76.9 70.0 15.5 24.0 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 19.9 28.1 24.0 215.0 83.5 73.4 5.6 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------