***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 8.5 14.2 8.9 47.5 36.0 30.3 12.7 17.1 18.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 5.0 6.2 7.6 46.9 34.3 28.9 5.8 10.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 5.5 7.6 7.3 42.0 30.5 25.4 7.9 10.5 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 9.1 12.8 10.9 56.0 41.7 35.2 9.1 14.7 24.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 9.0 15.5 9.3 49.1 39.2 31.1 12.1 17.9 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 6.7 6.2 10.0 51.5 36.4 32.5 5.2 12.5 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 2.7 6.3 8.0 46.1 35.9 28.6 5.4 9.9 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 9.6 15.6 9.1 53.2 35.8 33.5 14.3 23.9 33.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 6.0 6.8 9.6 50.6 35.3 32.3 5.5 13.2 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 6.5 10.2 9.7 48.9 32.0 30.2 10.5 15.4 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 6.3 5.8 7.7 46.1 36.2 30.9 5.3 10.0 21.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.8 7.5 7.6 52.5 39.0 35.2 4.9 13.0 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 4.6 4.2 8.2 48.9 34.9 32.5 4.0 9.2 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 8.9 8.8 5.5 27.2 19.9 17.9 11.3 15.9 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.9 7.8 11.2 63.2 43.6 41.1 5.3 11.5 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.2 5.7 8.4 49.8 38.1 33.9 5.3 7.2 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 4.2 6.1 6.7 41.7 34.8 28.4 6.0 8.9 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 6.0 6.2 9.6 45.1 28.2 27.8 8.1 14.0 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 6.6 7.8 8.5 53.1 37.9 32.2 6.7 10.0 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 8.0 10.0 9.9 53.0 33.6 32.2 9.8 17.4 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 5.4 9.9 7.9 43.3 31.6 27.0 9.9 13.6 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 6.7 9.0 7.7 50.3 39.4 33.3 7.1 10.4 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.8 7.4 8.8 54.5 37.1 33.0 7.3 8.9 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 6.8 6.8 7.8 38.1 23.7 23.2 7.8 13.9 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 5.5 7.9 10.9 48.9 32.3 30.0 7.9 10.8 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 5.2 6.9 6.7 44.8 36.5 31.0 6.5 9.8 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 7.6 9.9 11.2 52.0 34.8 31.6 8.3 17.7 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 8.1 14.2 10.8 62.1 44.9 39.4 10.3 14.6 20.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 9.3 11.8 9.2 44.5 27.5 27.5 15.9 23.8 32.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 4.9 8.9 7.7 45.7 33.1 27.6 8.9 11.8 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------