***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 24.5 24.4 25.7 0.0 52.3 53.3 23.9 24.2 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 25.0 24.8 25.7 0.0 49.4 51.4 23.8 24.8 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 25.1 24.9 25.7 -0.1 51.0 51.6 23.8 24.9 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 18.1 17.8 23.7 -0.3 48.8 47.0 16.9 17.9 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 25.5 25.3 24.0 -0.2 51.8 49.8 24.5 25.2 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 24.2 23.9 21.6 -0.2 48.7 48.5 22.7 23.9 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 24.4 24.4 25.7 0.1 52.5 53.8 23.5 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.0 22.2 -0.2 51.9 49.8 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 24.9 24.7 24.5 -0.1 53.3 51.3 23.7 24.7 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 24.8 24.6 23.1 -0.1 53.3 50.8 23.8 24.6 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 25.2 25.2 23.5 -0.2 51.0 49.9 24.1 25.0 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 24.1 23.9 23.0 -0.3 49.1 47.9 23.4 23.9 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 25.4 25.1 22.5 -0.3 48.8 46.8 24.2 25.2 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 24.8 24.9 24.2 0.0 53.3 53.4 23.9 24.6 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 26.0 25.7 24.3 -0.5 45.2 44.0 24.9 25.8 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 26.1 25.9 23.1 -0.3 48.9 48.0 24.7 25.9 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 24.0 24.2 25.5 0.1 52.2 53.0 23.3 23.8 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 24.2 24.1 22.4 0.0 54.4 52.1 23.3 24.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 24.5 24.3 25.6 -0.1 49.4 50.8 23.4 24.3 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 19.5 19.3 20.3 -0.1 53.6 50.6 18.6 19.1 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 25.1 24.9 25.3 -0.1 52.5 51.7 23.8 24.9 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 24.6 24.5 25.4 0.0 50.9 52.1 23.8 24.4 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 24.8 24.6 25.4 -0.1 50.1 51.2 23.8 24.6 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 24.4 24.4 24.1 0.0 52.3 52.7 23.4 24.2 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 25.2 25.1 24.3 -0.1 53.6 52.0 23.9 24.9 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 24.8 24.4 22.2 -0.4 45.6 45.3 23.9 24.5 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 25.0 24.9 25.0 0.1 53.5 53.8 23.6 24.8 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 26.0 25.7 23.9 -0.4 45.2 44.9 24.7 25.8 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 19.4 19.3 21.5 0.0 56.0 52.6 18.2 19.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 24.8 24.6 25.8 0.0 50.0 51.6 23.7 24.6 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------