***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 23.1 23.5 25.2 -1.3 33.7 38.6 23.4 24.4 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 23.7 23.4 25.2 -1.2 34.5 38.2 23.4 24.9 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 23.6 24.3 25.2 -1.3 33.3 37.5 24.3 25.1 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 16.3 16.1 23.4 -1.6 31.2 34.9 16.2 17.6 18.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 23.9 24.9 23.4 -1.5 32.3 36.2 24.9 25.7 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 22.8 22.8 21.2 -1.4 30.0 36.5 23.0 23.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 23.4 23.1 25.3 -1.1 38.1 40.0 23.0 24.6 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 12.3 12.2 21.7 -1.5 29.1 35.9 12.2 13.4 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 23.3 23.9 23.8 -1.4 32.2 37.1 23.9 24.8 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 23.1 23.3 22.5 -1.4 30.9 36.9 23.6 24.9 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 23.8 23.8 22.9 -1.5 30.6 35.9 24.2 25.2 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 22.6 23.2 22.5 -1.6 27.6 34.4 23.4 24.1 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 24.0 23.9 21.9 -1.7 26.5 34.1 24.4 25.5 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 23.2 23.8 23.6 -1.2 33.9 39.2 23.7 25.0 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 24.4 23.9 23.6 -1.7 29.7 33.8 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 24.6 24.3 22.5 -1.6 28.1 35.0 24.8 26.1 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 23.1 23.4 25.1 -1.1 37.5 39.9 23.0 24.0 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 22.9 22.8 21.9 -1.3 32.7 38.1 22.8 24.7 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 23.3 22.8 25.2 -1.3 33.1 37.4 22.8 24.6 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 18.2 18.7 19.7 -1.4 29.9 36.9 18.8 19.5 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 23.2 24.0 24.6 -1.4 32.1 37.2 24.1 24.9 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 23.4 23.8 25.0 -1.2 34.0 38.6 23.6 24.8 26.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 23.7 23.4 24.9 -1.3 33.2 37.6 23.4 25.1 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 23.0 23.5 23.5 -1.3 34.0 38.6 23.4 24.7 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 23.5 24.3 23.7 -1.4 34.2 37.4 24.2 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 23.7 23.8 21.8 -1.7 27.3 33.6 23.9 24.7 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 23.2 23.6 24.5 -1.3 35.3 38.7 23.5 24.2 26.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 24.2 24.1 23.5 -1.7 29.1 34.1 24.9 26.1 27.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 18.4 18.1 20.8 -1.3 32.1 38.3 18.1 19.6 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 23.5 23.3 25.3 -1.3 33.3 38.0 23.3 24.8 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------