***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 25.2 25.1 25.5 1.6 68.6 66.7 21.9 24.0 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 24.7 25.5 25.4 1.6 68.0 65.8 22.2 24.6 25.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 46 54 100 25.4 25.6 25.6 1.7 68.0 67.1 22.0 24.6 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 17.4 18.3 22.9 1.0 61.8 61.4 14.5 17.1 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 24.0 26.2 23.9 1.4 65.6 64.9 22.1 23.6 26.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 22.7 24.6 20.8 0.7 62.9 61.5 20.6 22.3 24.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 25.0 25.1 25.4 1.6 68.0 66.1 22.3 24.0 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 13.8 13.7 21.7 1.2 66.4 65.0 10.7 12.8 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 47 53 100 24.9 25.3 24.8 1.6 66.7 66.9 21.5 23.7 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 24.9 25.7 23.0 1.5 67.5 66.3 21.6 23.2 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 48 52 100 24.6 25.7 23.4 1.3 66.3 64.9 21.9 23.0 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 22.2 23.9 22.4 1.1 64.0 63.4 21.0 21.9 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 23.8 25.5 22.3 1.0 62.9 62.6 22.0 23.5 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 25.5 25.7 24.7 2.0 71.4 70.8 21.9 24.3 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 24.8 25.3 24.2 0.8 57.8 59.0 22.5 24.6 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 24.2 26.3 22.9 1.1 65.6 63.4 22.7 23.8 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 24.4 25.0 25.1 1.7 68.0 66.8 22.6 23.3 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 24.4 24.9 22.3 1.7 69.8 67.9 21.3 22.7 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 49 51 100 25.0 25.1 25.4 1.6 68.0 66.4 21.6 24.3 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 19.7 19.8 20.0 1.4 68.6 66.2 16.6 18.3 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 47 53 100 25.2 25.2 25.6 1.7 66.3 67.0 21.5 24.0 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 25.2 25.2 25.2 1.8 68.0 67.7 22.4 24.3 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 25.3 25.4 25.5 1.8 68.3 67.9 22.1 24.4 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 24.8 25.0 24.4 1.9 69.7 69.5 21.1 23.7 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 24.6 25.4 24.3 1.5 66.6 65.5 22.1 24.3 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 23.6 24.2 21.3 0.8 60.4 60.9 21.4 23.3 24.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 24.8 25.1 24.9 1.6 69.0 66.6 22.0 24.1 25.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 24.0 25.9 23.3 0.8 59.4 59.9 21.8 23.7 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 19.8 20.2 21.6 1.7 70.4 68.8 16.6 18.3 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 49 51 100 25.5 25.7 25.5 1.6 68.6 65.9 21.6 24.7 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------