***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.4 15.2 0.1 55.2 54.2 12.4 13.1 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 12.9 13.1 15.3 0.3 56.3 57.1 12.3 12.7 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 14.9 14.9 15.0 0.1 54.0 54.5 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 9.9 9.8 13.2 0.1 55.0 55.9 8.7 9.7 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 11.7 11.7 13.0 0.1 54.9 54.3 11.0 11.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 10.5 10.5 11.2 0.1 55.7 54.0 10.0 10.4 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.4 15.4 0.3 58.2 57.1 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.5 10.9 -0.1 53.8 50.5 4.8 5.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.7 13.3 0.0 52.0 51.8 12.0 12.6 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.6 11.6 0.0 53.1 50.7 12.1 12.6 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 12.4 12.5 12.5 0.0 54.0 52.7 11.7 12.3 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.4 10.3 11.7 -0.1 51.0 49.6 10.0 10.3 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.6 11.4 -0.1 49.6 48.7 11.2 11.6 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.3 13.2 0.0 53.0 52.8 12.5 13.3 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.1 13.6 -0.2 44.5 46.7 13.0 13.2 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.0 12.2 0.0 53.4 52.3 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 13.6 13.5 15.2 0.4 58.5 59.9 12.8 13.5 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 10.4 11.0 10.7 -0.1 51.9 49.7 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 13.3 13.4 15.2 0.2 56.2 56.9 12.4 13.2 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.5 7.1 8.9 -0.2 52.7 47.5 6.5 7.0 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.6 14.4 0.0 51.9 52.9 12.2 12.6 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 12.7 12.8 15.0 0.3 58.9 57.8 12.1 12.6 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 13.1 13.2 14.8 0.2 55.1 56.0 12.0 13.0 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.7 12.9 0.0 52.5 52.2 12.0 12.6 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.1 13.7 0.1 52.1 54.2 12.1 13.1 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 11.4 11.5 11.5 -0.1 53.0 51.3 10.8 11.3 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.2 14.5 0.1 53.2 54.0 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 11.7 11.6 13.4 0.0 50.9 51.4 10.9 11.6 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.0 9.8 10.1 -0.1 54.2 49.9 8.7 9.7 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 13.5 13.6 15.4 0.2 56.2 55.9 12.6 13.4 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------