***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 14.9 15.1 16.6 0.1 57.8 54.0 14.2 14.7 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 14.0 14.7 16.6 0.1 55.9 53.1 13.2 13.8 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 15.9 15.8 16.4 0.1 54.9 52.8 14.9 15.7 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.0 14.4 0.0 50.7 50.8 10.3 11.0 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.0 12.8 14.3 0.0 49.4 51.2 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.6 12.5 0.0 48.0 49.9 11.3 11.6 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 14.9 14.7 16.7 0.2 55.6 54.2 13.5 14.7 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 7.0 6.5 12.2 -0.1 43.2 47.2 5.8 6.8 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 14.4 14.2 14.6 0.1 50.8 52.0 13.2 14.2 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 14.0 13.7 12.9 0.0 46.7 49.7 12.9 13.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.4 13.8 0.0 46.1 49.4 12.9 13.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.1 13.1 -0.2 42.4 46.0 10.9 11.6 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.0 12.8 -0.2 44.6 47.0 12.5 13.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 14.7 14.5 14.5 0.0 49.7 50.6 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 15.1 14.8 14.9 -0.1 49.7 50.1 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.2 13.5 -0.1 45.5 48.5 13.0 14.3 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 14.9 14.9 16.5 0.2 56.2 54.8 13.7 14.6 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 12.9 12.4 12.2 0.0 45.9 49.1 11.9 12.8 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 14.5 14.4 16.5 0.1 55.5 52.8 13.5 14.3 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.5 8.0 10.4 -0.1 44.6 47.7 7.8 8.3 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.2 15.7 0.1 54.6 52.5 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 14.3 14.1 16.3 0.1 53.9 53.5 12.9 14.1 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 14.0 13.9 16.1 0.0 53.6 52.1 13.1 13.7 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 14.2 13.9 14.3 0.0 48.8 50.7 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.1 15.0 0.1 56.0 53.1 13.4 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.3 12.8 -0.3 45.0 46.1 11.6 12.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 14.0 14.3 15.8 0.1 57.0 54.0 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.2 12.9 14.7 -0.1 48.9 49.7 12.4 12.9 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 11.1 10.4 11.5 0.0 44.1 49.4 9.7 10.9 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 14.7 14.6 16.7 0.1 55.3 53.0 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------