***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 12.4 12.7 15.2 -0.7 37.0 41.9 12.7 13.4 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 12.4 12.7 15.3 -0.6 40.4 44.1 12.6 13.3 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.2 15.0 -0.7 38.7 41.9 14.0 14.6 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.0 9.1 13.0 -0.8 36.1 39.7 9.1 10.0 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 11.0 11.2 12.9 -0.7 34.6 40.4 11.1 12.1 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 10.1 10.7 11.2 -0.6 40.3 42.0 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 12.6 13.1 15.4 -0.5 40.9 44.2 12.9 13.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 4.6 4.9 11.0 -0.7 35.3 40.6 4.8 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 12.2 12.4 13.2 -0.7 35.9 41.4 12.2 12.9 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 11.7 12.5 11.7 -0.6 36.8 41.9 12.5 12.7 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 11.7 12.0 12.4 -0.7 34.3 40.3 11.9 12.5 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 10.0 10.3 11.8 -0.8 33.8 38.4 10.3 10.6 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 11.2 11.8 11.5 -0.7 35.9 39.1 11.8 12.2 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 12.7 13.2 13.3 -0.6 38.5 42.4 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 13.0 13.1 13.5 -0.8 36.1 39.0 13.0 13.5 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 11.9 12.3 12.2 -0.7 35.9 39.2 12.3 12.8 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 12.9 13.3 15.2 -0.4 44.9 46.9 13.1 13.4 14.7 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 10.7 11.1 11.0 -0.6 39.1 42.1 10.7 11.9 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 12.7 12.9 15.2 -0.6 40.2 43.7 12.7 13.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 6.6 6.7 9.2 -0.7 38.5 40.7 6.3 7.5 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 12.0 12.6 14.3 -0.7 36.7 41.1 12.3 12.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.8 15.0 -0.4 41.0 45.6 12.5 13.0 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 12.0 12.4 14.8 -0.6 41.6 43.0 12.1 12.8 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.6 13.0 -0.6 39.4 42.1 12.3 12.8 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 12.1 12.3 13.6 -0.6 37.3 41.6 12.2 13.4 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 11.0 11.3 11.5 -0.8 34.7 37.6 11.2 11.8 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 12.3 12.3 14.4 -0.6 36.6 42.1 12.2 13.0 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 11.1 11.4 13.3 -0.8 35.8 38.8 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.0 9.5 10.3 -0.6 38.7 42.0 9.4 10.0 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 12.9 13.2 15.3 -0.6 38.2 42.8 13.0 13.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------