***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.4 15.9 1.3 75.9 70.3 11.4 13.2 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 13.8 14.2 15.9 1.3 73.4 69.7 11.4 12.8 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 15.5 15.7 15.7 1.2 75.0 69.9 13.1 14.8 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 10.5 10.5 13.8 1.3 72.7 70.0 7.6 9.3 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 12.0 12.2 13.7 1.3 75.8 71.5 10.4 11.3 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 10.7 10.9 11.8 1.0 74.5 69.6 9.6 10.0 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 14.0 14.3 16.0 1.4 75.0 70.6 11.7 13.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 5.7 6.0 11.6 1.0 74.3 69.2 3.6 4.5 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 12.9 13.1 14.0 1.3 77.4 71.4 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 13.0 13.1 12.3 1.1 76.0 70.6 11.0 12.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 12.6 12.9 13.2 1.3 77.3 71.7 10.7 11.7 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 10.9 11.1 12.5 1.0 75.1 69.9 8.9 9.6 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 12.1 12.4 12.1 1.1 74.6 70.2 10.5 11.1 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 13.5 13.3 13.9 1.1 74.6 69.9 11.8 12.8 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 13.8 13.8 14.2 1.1 70.1 68.3 12.0 12.9 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 13.0 13.0 12.9 1.2 75.0 71.4 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 14.2 14.1 15.8 1.4 74.5 71.2 11.9 12.8 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 11.3 11.6 11.5 1.0 75.3 69.5 9.6 10.2 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 13.6 13.9 15.8 1.2 73.3 69.6 11.6 12.7 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 7.2 7.5 9.7 0.8 70.8 66.5 5.4 6.1 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 12.9 13.1 15.0 1.3 74.3 70.3 11.6 12.0 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.6 15.6 1.3 73.7 70.1 10.8 12.0 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 13.2 13.3 15.4 1.2 73.5 69.7 11.6 12.6 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 13.0 13.0 13.6 1.1 76.4 70.3 10.9 12.0 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 13.6 13.8 14.4 1.3 72.8 69.9 11.1 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 11.5 11.4 12.1 0.9 74.1 68.5 10.0 10.9 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 13.9 14.2 15.1 1.3 75.0 70.5 11.4 12.6 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 11.9 12.2 14.0 1.1 71.5 69.3 10.2 10.8 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 10.0 10.0 10.8 0.9 73.0 68.0 7.6 9.0 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 14.1 14.2 16.0 1.3 73.7 69.7 11.6 13.3 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------