***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 12.0 11.4 13.3 -0.2 44.3 45.0 11.2 11.6 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 12.1 12.0 13.4 0.2 51.6 50.4 10.7 12.0 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 13.9 13.3 13.1 -0.2 45.1 45.1 12.4 13.8 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 95 5 100 9.0 8.7 11.4 0.1 49.5 49.3 7.3 8.9 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 10.7 10.3 11.2 -0.3 41.9 42.6 10.1 10.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 9.7 9.4 9.3 -0.2 46.6 45.7 8.8 9.5 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 12.2 11.9 13.4 0.0 48.0 48.7 10.8 12.0 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 4.3 3.9 8.8 -0.5 40.9 40.6 3.5 4.1 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.1 10.8 11.2 -0.7 35.1 35.6 10.8 11.9 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.0 10.9 9.3 -0.7 34.9 35.5 10.8 11.8 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 11.8 11.0 10.4 -0.5 37.8 38.5 10.9 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 9.7 8.9 9.5 -0.4 41.2 40.4 8.6 9.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 11.2 10.3 9.3 -0.7 37.8 37.3 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 94 6 100 12.0 11.6 11.3 -0.4 41.0 41.7 11.4 11.8 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 11.3 11.8 11.7 -0.9 32.0 32.3 11.9 12.3 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 12.0 11.2 10.3 -0.4 44.2 42.6 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 95 5 100 12.8 12.7 13.3 0.3 53.7 52.4 11.2 12.7 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 9.2 9.6 8.3 -0.8 33.3 34.2 9.6 10.1 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 96 4 100 12.1 12.1 13.3 0.1 50.1 49.7 11.2 12.0 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.7 6.4 -0.7 35.1 35.8 5.5 6.0 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 11.7 11.3 12.6 -0.4 41.5 41.2 10.8 11.5 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 96 4 100 11.5 11.4 13.2 0.2 50.8 51.0 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 97 3 100 11.6 11.5 13.0 0.0 46.8 47.7 11.0 11.6 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 11.7 11.2 10.8 -0.5 38.1 39.3 11.1 11.4 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 12.1 11.5 12.0 -0.4 39.4 41.9 11.0 11.8 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 10.7 10.5 9.5 -0.1 51.5 49.2 9.7 10.5 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 12.4 11.5 12.5 -0.4 39.5 41.7 11.0 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 10.6 10.1 11.5 -0.3 43.0 42.7 9.6 10.3 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.7 7.5 7.9 -0.6 36.7 37.1 7.4 8.2 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 12.4 12.2 13.5 0.1 50.0 48.7 11.1 12.2 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------