***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 60.3 74.8 63.5 95.9 50.2 47.6 58.8 74.8 84.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 54.8 70.0 48.8 85.0 44.6 42.7 63.7 72.3 85.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 63.9 80.4 60.8 94.3 50.4 46.6 61.3 79.8 92.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 88.7 88.6 75.9 107.8 62.2 55.7 72.2 83.4 91.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 71.4 69.5 68.6 103.2 58.1 52.3 57.8 66.4 76.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 77.1 84.8 89.4 116.0 68.4 59.0 59.7 73.1 78.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 44.0 57.2 48.2 84.2 42.5 42.0 43.6 62.4 79.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 84.8 98.9 76.1 100.8 55.9 50.7 89.5 96.8 105.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 64.7 68.2 68.9 100.6 54.6 50.6 51.0 58.5 79.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 81.8 82.2 77.2 98.9 54.7 49.6 60.8 73.9 97.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 61.7 63.2 67.6 106.0 59.2 53.5 51.3 58.0 68.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 69.4 66.8 67.0 105.4 59.2 52.9 42.7 64.3 69.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 67.7 68.2 73.9 108.5 61.9 54.5 52.7 60.6 75.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 70.2 83.7 72.9 89.8 45.1 43.6 69.5 85.3 99.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 63.3 70.6 74.1 116.0 68.1 59.5 46.7 60.0 70.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 65.9 68.0 71.8 109.9 62.6 55.6 37.5 61.4 70.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 42.6 62.9 44.2 80.3 40.7 40.4 60.1 71.2 87.1 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 66.7 86.5 81.2 95.8 50.2 47.7 70.7 86.4 93.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 58.3 77.1 52.1 88.3 46.5 44.1 69.7 79.3 96.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 80.5 81.3 85.8 104.4 58.5 53.4 62.5 77.1 87.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 71.8 69.1 66.3 99.5 55.4 49.2 59.3 67.0 73.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 53.9 70.0 47.0 81.7 41.5 41.3 67.8 70.9 82.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 54.1 64.7 56.2 90.8 47.3 44.4 58.5 66.0 72.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 72.7 83.0 71.3 93.3 48.3 46.0 71.0 83.1 87.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 73.4 70.5 72.4 99.1 56.9 49.7 56.6 66.4 81.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 66.0 68.2 66.9 108.4 61.1 54.0 46.9 62.0 68.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 53.5 72.7 67.7 94.7 51.8 46.7 54.0 71.8 89.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 61.7 68.0 77.0 114.0 65.6 58.6 54.2 57.7 68.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 104.3 98.9 83.4 97.9 51.6 48.9 88.9 97.9 115.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 61.6 74.6 53.2 88.8 47.0 44.3 66.1 78.2 86.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------