***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 7.0 19.0 15.2 94.0 59.4 44.9 4.2 15.0 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 10.6 26.3 13.3 89.1 57.7 44.4 11.9 19.3 28.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 10.0 23.5 14.3 86.0 55.7 43.1 7.1 19.6 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 8.5 21.0 13.4 81.0 53.7 43.0 10.0 16.9 30.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 7.5 15.2 13.1 81.9 55.0 41.8 8.1 14.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 10.2 18.0 14.9 80.2 47.0 41.6 13.2 19.0 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 8.2 13.2 12.7 88.1 59.2 44.2 7.5 12.5 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 10.0 17.4 15.3 82.5 48.6 41.8 10.5 17.9 35.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 5.3 16.1 14.6 87.0 56.7 43.4 8.3 12.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 7.4 15.6 16.0 81.6 49.9 42.4 6.3 15.6 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 7.4 16.2 11.5 79.2 49.1 41.2 10.5 16.3 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 4.1 9.2 12.1 81.8 49.3 40.8 5.5 9.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.6 13.0 12.1 75.5 45.3 40.1 7.6 14.4 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 8.1 17.5 18.7 88.0 54.5 43.6 11.5 14.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.9 15.8 11.9 86.5 58.7 44.9 1.9 10.3 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.0 9.5 11.3 73.9 46.7 40.0 4.2 9.5 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 7.3 22.2 13.2 98.4 63.5 46.3 8.1 12.4 23.6 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.1 13.3 17.8 79.3 48.6 41.3 9.5 15.5 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 10.5 21.7 14.2 91.4 58.4 44.7 13.8 18.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 6.7 14.9 18.6 89.1 52.6 43.9 6.9 14.5 27.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 7.9 17.7 14.0 86.7 56.8 43.6 8.9 12.9 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 10.0 20.1 13.9 95.5 61.8 45.8 12.5 16.1 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 8.1 19.9 14.9 93.1 60.1 45.1 6.3 15.4 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 9.1 19.6 16.3 80.1 49.7 41.4 11.2 19.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.8 15.2 15.4 89.1 57.7 44.1 7.2 12.1 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.8 10.4 11.4 84.4 51.5 43.2 1.6 8.6 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.1 21.3 15.4 89.3 57.9 43.5 4.6 9.3 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 5.2 12.4 12.7 81.4 54.3 43.5 5.0 11.5 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 10.8 20.6 17.9 79.6 48.6 41.0 15.4 20.8 41.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 12.3 23.3 13.6 86.9 56.5 44.1 13.0 21.5 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------