***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 10.4 16.3 13.2 73.7 50.8 42.6 8.3 16.1 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 7.7 16.2 10.4 67.9 49.7 40.3 10.9 16.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 11.3 18.5 12.3 69.7 50.8 40.6 11.0 18.0 32.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 10.1 18.3 13.4 68.9 51.3 41.0 7.4 17.9 26.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 9.0 14.3 12.2 67.2 49.1 40.1 8.8 15.1 22.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 7.3 14.1 16.6 77.9 50.5 41.3 9.5 14.0 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 6.9 12.5 10.5 70.0 49.4 42.2 8.8 12.5 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 17.1 25.2 13.1 65.7 43.4 37.6 22.1 27.3 33.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 11.6 17.4 12.6 66.9 46.9 37.9 10.1 20.7 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 9.1 11.7 13.9 65.8 44.1 37.2 9.6 12.6 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 9.4 13.4 10.7 64.5 45.9 38.7 10.5 14.6 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.9 8.7 10.7 61.8 43.8 36.6 7.8 10.0 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 5.8 9.3 13.4 70.9 49.9 40.4 6.5 9.3 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 16.2 23.0 14.3 63.7 45.7 39.0 17.9 24.6 36.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.3 13.4 74.1 56.5 43.5 3.5 9.4 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 6.1 10.6 11.9 66.7 50.0 38.5 6.3 10.6 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 7.6 14.0 10.0 70.1 50.1 41.7 9.3 14.0 30.1 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 15.9 19.6 15.8 68.0 42.7 38.2 15.6 20.7 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 7.8 19.8 10.8 67.2 48.7 40.3 5.6 19.8 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.8 14.1 16.6 74.3 46.3 41.3 9.9 15.8 29.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 8.6 15.8 12.9 70.8 51.1 40.1 9.8 15.6 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 9.7 19.1 10.1 66.0 49.6 40.3 11.2 19.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 9.2 22.1 11.4 68.3 49.8 40.9 14.1 22.3 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 15.2 21.1 13.6 64.8 42.8 38.4 15.7 23.0 34.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.8 18.9 14.4 73.0 52.1 42.4 13.4 17.9 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 4.9 10.1 11.6 69.3 48.4 40.1 4.6 10.5 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 9.7 19.3 14.1 73.6 50.2 42.2 8.7 19.2 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 8.7 15.9 13.3 69.8 52.3 40.9 5.8 15.2 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 17.1 23.4 16.8 72.1 45.8 40.2 17.6 24.5 32.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 9.5 17.8 11.1 69.6 48.9 40.9 10.9 17.9 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------