***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.6 8.9 13.0 78.9 53.8 43.9 2.7 8.6 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.4 7.0 10.3 75.9 54.5 41.3 3.2 7.0 20.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.4 10.3 12.6 79.0 54.7 42.4 4.2 6.3 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 5.9 9.3 11.3 66.5 43.9 37.9 6.2 12.7 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.7 7.7 11.7 72.5 45.1 39.2 5.8 8.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 7.5 12.7 16.1 84.3 52.0 43.6 6.0 12.5 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.2 4.9 10.3 75.2 52.6 42.1 3.0 4.8 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 14.9 20.6 11.9 68.3 42.5 35.8 13.4 25.2 37.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.9 6.6 11.0 65.1 41.6 34.9 3.9 12.4 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 5.9 10.8 12.4 68.8 43.2 36.4 7.0 11.9 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.7 9.1 12.4 75.4 45.1 38.9 7.3 10.6 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 6.4 13.3 10.3 65.1 41.7 35.0 10.6 15.0 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.3 12.7 11.5 66.7 44.8 37.6 4.2 13.3 19.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 7.1 13.8 14.0 70.0 46.7 40.2 9.5 14.2 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.3 9.8 10.8 67.3 52.5 42.4 4.6 8.9 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 6.3 12.2 11.0 66.0 44.1 36.1 6.3 14.4 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.7 9.1 10.2 76.2 54.6 41.6 2.2 8.3 9.8 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 7.2 10.2 13.5 68.3 41.5 36.2 7.9 14.3 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.2 7.4 11.0 77.5 54.7 42.1 2.3 6.9 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 6.9 11.0 13.2 68.4 39.1 34.8 8.9 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.7 7.0 12.1 73.1 47.2 39.0 5.2 7.7 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.8 10.2 10.9 79.0 57.4 42.0 5.6 8.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.9 6.9 11.6 74.7 51.5 43.3 3.6 6.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 5.6 11.5 13.5 71.2 46.9 38.3 10.3 11.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.5 8.8 14.7 80.8 52.8 43.2 3.8 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.7 12.4 13.0 79.8 51.0 44.4 7.1 11.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.8 8.2 14.5 80.6 53.8 43.2 1.6 6.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.2 11.6 10.6 65.8 48.0 39.4 3.7 12.8 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 9.6 14.5 14.4 70.6 42.6 36.4 12.3 18.7 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.1 7.5 11.2 77.7 53.8 42.4 2.4 7.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------