***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 18.2 25.7 22.2 141.2 76.7 61.5 12.3 16.2 21.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.6 14.8 109.6 64.0 54.2 9.0 12.0 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 18.3 21.2 21.6 151.4 76.5 63.7 10.3 12.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 27.5 39.0 37.8 217.9 87.4 77.5 8.8 13.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 25.7 35.3 31.7 195.1 85.1 75.3 11.0 15.3 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 19.6 30.0 41.9 232.2 91.4 81.3 5.7 12.9 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 6.7 15.4 14.8 104.1 62.6 51.5 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 33.3 43.9 35.8 184.2 86.2 74.9 15.5 21.5 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 20.8 28.0 30.6 193.1 84.8 75.4 7.1 11.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 31.0 41.4 34.9 182.3 84.2 75.1 10.6 14.6 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 19.1 26.6 33.0 205.7 84.9 76.0 5.2 9.1 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 19.6 34.4 33.9 215.0 88.5 77.1 7.6 10.7 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 19.4 28.9 37.0 230.4 87.7 79.8 4.9 10.4 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 25.9 31.0 25.8 148.3 78.8 65.0 14.9 18.5 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 19.2 27.0 38.1 237.8 88.4 77.2 4.5 7.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 24.5 39.3 37.5 242.4 88.9 81.1 5.6 8.3 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.7 8.9 10.9 77.6 50.0 43.8 6.3 8.9 12.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 24.9 34.0 34.0 177.1 84.1 74.4 8.2 14.2 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 14.1 20.6 16.2 121.4 68.3 57.6 8.8 10.6 20.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 23.8 31.0 37.3 193.9 87.6 77.5 10.4 17.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 20.3 26.4 27.3 174.0 82.2 70.7 9.3 12.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.2 11.6 12.1 87.4 55.4 48.0 7.3 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 17.7 20.2 18.3 134.6 74.5 61.4 8.3 13.1 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 23.0 27.9 27.9 173.0 82.1 70.2 10.7 17.0 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 23.9 29.7 27.9 156.4 80.0 66.8 8.0 12.6 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 17.8 25.7 30.9 202.4 86.8 74.2 6.2 10.5 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 21.4 24.4 23.7 138.6 75.5 61.2 9.2 15.0 19.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 20.2 33.5 40.4 242.9 89.5 80.1 8.6 13.7 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 35.7 48.5 34.3 181.4 85.2 75.0 16.2 22.3 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.4 18.5 17.4 124.5 70.3 58.4 9.6 12.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------