***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 25.3 25.5 25.5 0.9 70.3 61.9 23.9 24.3 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.6 25.4 0.6 63.5 57.1 23.9 24.5 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 25.0 25.5 25.6 0.7 66.5 59.4 23.8 24.8 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 16.9 18.3 22.4 0.5 65.9 57.6 16.9 17.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 24.2 25.8 23.2 0.4 62.0 56.2 24.5 25.0 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 24.7 24.7 21.0 0.8 73.5 60.9 22.9 23.8 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 24.4 25.1 25.4 0.7 64.7 58.2 23.6 23.9 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.8 21.4 0.6 67.1 58.3 12.4 12.8 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 24.7 25.2 23.8 0.5 63.7 57.9 23.7 24.4 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.7 25.5 22.3 0.6 67.3 59.1 23.8 24.3 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 24.1 25.6 23.2 0.3 62.6 54.7 24.0 24.9 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 24.1 24.7 22.7 0.5 65.7 57.2 23.3 23.8 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.8 22.5 0.5 67.3 56.8 24.1 25.2 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 24.9 25.6 23.6 0.7 66.8 59.2 23.9 24.6 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 24.8 26.3 24.1 0.4 63.2 55.1 24.9 25.7 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 24.8 26.2 22.8 0.4 64.4 55.6 24.8 25.8 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 24.2 25.2 25.1 0.6 63.4 57.7 23.4 23.8 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 24.2 24.7 21.6 0.7 70.0 60.3 23.3 24.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 24.4 25.1 25.5 0.6 64.0 57.5 23.4 24.0 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.5 20.0 19.1 0.6 68.4 58.7 18.4 19.1 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.2 24.7 0.5 63.0 57.9 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 24.7 25.6 25.2 0.8 67.1 60.5 23.8 24.3 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 24.9 25.5 25.4 0.6 64.2 58.3 23.8 24.7 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.4 24.8 23.6 0.7 68.5 60.2 23.4 24.1 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 25.7 25.7 23.6 0.6 67.0 58.7 23.8 24.9 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 25.3 25.7 22.5 1.0 75.7 63.6 23.7 24.5 25.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 25.5 25.8 24.7 0.8 70.3 61.4 23.4 24.4 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 24.6 26.1 23.0 0.4 64.3 56.2 24.8 25.6 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.3 19.6 20.6 0.6 67.0 58.1 18.3 18.8 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 24.7 25.2 25.5 0.7 65.0 58.3 23.7 24.3 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------