***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 27.8 28.7 28.3 2.4 76.1 67.8 25.2 26.2 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 27.4 27.8 28.1 2.2 74.6 65.8 25.1 25.8 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 27.2 27.9 28.5 2.4 75.3 67.6 24.6 26.0 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 20.5 21.0 25.7 2.1 76.0 68.0 17.9 19.3 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 28.2 28.8 26.2 2.1 76.7 67.7 25.1 26.6 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 26.8 27.8 23.6 2.2 80.4 68.8 23.8 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 27.0 27.7 28.1 2.2 74.3 66.2 24.8 25.4 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 16.3 17.3 24.4 2.1 77.3 67.3 13.3 14.1 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 27.5 28.2 26.6 2.3 77.3 68.7 24.5 25.7 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 27.5 28.5 25.2 2.4 79.2 69.1 24.7 25.8 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 27.9 28.5 26.0 2.1 76.8 67.6 24.9 26.6 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 27.0 27.5 25.9 2.2 76.7 67.1 24.1 25.6 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 28.1 28.8 24.9 2.2 75.4 67.2 25.4 26.6 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 27.2 28.0 26.2 2.3 79.1 67.6 23.9 26.0 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 28.9 29.2 26.8 2.1 75.4 67.5 25.8 27.3 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 28.5 29.1 25.6 2.2 76.5 67.8 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 26.9 26.8 27.9 2.1 73.0 65.3 24.5 25.0 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 26.8 27.8 24.7 2.5 80.9 69.3 23.9 25.3 26.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 26.6 27.0 28.3 2.2 74.7 66.0 24.2 25.3 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 22.3 23.3 21.6 2.0 75.7 65.6 19.6 20.4 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 27.7 28.4 27.4 2.2 75.7 67.6 24.8 26.1 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 27.3 27.5 27.8 2.2 75.4 66.2 24.7 25.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 27.1 28.0 28.2 2.3 76.0 66.4 24.3 25.8 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 26.8 27.7 26.4 2.5 80.4 69.1 24.1 25.3 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 27.7 28.3 26.3 2.2 75.6 67.7 25.2 26.5 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 27.9 28.6 25.4 2.3 78.6 68.2 24.5 26.6 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 27.3 28.0 27.3 2.4 76.8 68.2 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 28.8 29.1 26.1 2.2 76.6 68.2 26.1 27.4 28.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 22.2 23.3 23.4 2.2 78.7 67.3 19.2 20.5 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 26.9 27.6 28.2 2.2 74.9 66.4 24.8 25.6 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------