***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 26.2 27.2 27.6 2.3 78.4 69.8 23.6 24.4 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 27.2 28.1 27.6 2.1 74.2 68.3 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 27.1 28.2 27.8 2.3 76.9 69.2 24.0 24.5 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 19.5 19.1 24.6 1.7 72.0 67.1 16.4 17.2 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 27.4 27.6 25.2 1.7 72.2 66.3 24.1 25.1 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 25.3 25.3 22.3 1.5 71.0 64.9 22.5 23.7 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 27.0 27.5 27.6 2.2 73.9 68.9 23.1 24.2 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 14.5 14.9 23.6 1.9 75.5 67.6 11.8 12.9 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 26.8 27.4 25.6 1.9 74.5 67.6 23.6 24.5 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 27.0 28.0 24.4 2.0 76.4 68.5 23.6 24.1 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 27.0 27.4 25.0 1.6 73.2 65.9 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 25.7 26.0 24.9 1.8 73.9 66.6 23.0 24.0 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 26.5 27.0 23.8 1.6 72.3 65.2 23.9 25.0 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 26.8 27.7 25.6 2.3 78.1 69.6 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 27.4 28.0 25.6 1.6 72.7 66.3 24.5 25.4 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 27.3 27.8 24.4 1.6 72.5 65.6 24.2 25.8 27.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 27.0 27.5 27.5 2.3 73.6 69.2 23.3 24.3 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 26.1 26.8 24.0 2.3 77.5 70.1 23.2 23.7 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 26.8 27.8 27.7 2.2 74.8 68.6 23.5 23.9 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 21.3 21.9 21.1 2.0 75.5 68.3 18.3 19.3 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 27.2 28.2 26.6 2.0 75.3 68.3 23.8 24.4 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 27.4 28.3 27.5 2.5 75.7 70.7 23.7 24.6 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 27.1 28.0 27.7 2.3 76.0 69.2 23.8 24.6 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 26.2 27.1 25.7 2.4 78.2 70.4 23.7 24.1 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 27.0 27.7 25.5 2.0 76.0 68.7 23.6 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 26.2 26.6 24.3 1.9 73.4 67.2 23.2 24.2 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 27.0 28.1 26.6 2.2 77.5 69.7 23.5 24.2 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 27.4 27.9 24.9 1.6 72.1 66.2 24.3 25.6 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 20.8 21.1 22.9 2.1 76.2 69.2 18.3 18.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 27.1 27.9 27.6 2.2 75.1 68.5 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------