***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 23.4 25.9 25.1 0.9 62.3 56.0 23.1 25.1 26.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 23.3 25.4 24.9 0.5 56.6 52.0 23.5 24.6 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 23.4 26.1 25.1 0.7 59.8 53.8 23.4 24.9 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 15.7 18.6 21.7 0.5 57.7 52.4 15.9 17.1 19.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 23.3 25.7 22.8 0.4 57.0 51.4 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 21.6 24.3 20.4 0.6 59.1 52.3 21.9 23.1 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 23.0 24.8 24.8 0.5 59.1 52.9 23.3 24.7 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 10.8 13.7 21.0 0.6 58.8 52.4 10.9 12.7 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 22.9 25.7 23.6 0.6 57.6 52.7 22.7 24.6 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 22.7 25.7 22.0 0.7 60.4 53.4 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 23.1 25.9 22.9 0.4 56.3 50.6 23.4 25.0 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 22.1 24.6 22.1 0.5 56.0 51.3 21.8 24.0 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 22.8 25.6 22.1 0.3 55.3 50.1 23.1 24.7 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 24.9 25.9 23.4 0.8 60.7 54.6 22.8 24.2 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 23.9 25.8 23.7 0.3 53.8 51.2 24.0 25.4 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 23.4 26.2 22.3 0.3 54.8 49.9 23.9 25.8 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.6 24.5 0.5 56.9 52.0 22.9 24.3 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 22.3 25.2 21.3 0.8 61.9 54.1 22.1 23.9 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 22.7 24.3 25.0 0.5 56.2 52.3 22.9 23.8 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 17.1 20.2 18.7 0.6 57.4 52.2 16.9 19.2 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 23.2 25.8 24.4 0.6 58.2 53.0 23.3 24.6 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 25.2 24.9 24.6 0.7 58.1 53.8 23.1 24.6 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 23.4 25.9 25.0 0.6 58.0 53.0 23.1 24.7 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 22.7 25.6 23.4 0.8 61.4 54.4 22.5 23.9 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 23.6 25.6 23.3 0.6 58.2 53.6 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 21.9 24.4 21.6 0.7 58.6 52.8 22.6 23.8 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 23.0 25.6 24.2 0.8 60.6 55.4 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 23.6 25.7 22.5 0.4 55.5 51.3 24.0 25.0 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 17.2 19.8 20.3 0.7 59.1 52.7 16.9 19.0 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 23.1 25.4 25.0 0.6 59.2 53.0 23.5 24.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------