***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 20.7 20.4 21.1 -2.1 22.4 29.2 21.5 23.4 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 21.3 20.4 21.1 -2.4 19.3 27.3 22.3 24.8 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 21.3 20.9 20.8 -2.5 20.0 26.4 22.3 24.0 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 13.7 13.1 17.5 -2.3 20.3 27.6 13.9 16.2 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 21.2 21.0 18.6 -2.6 18.5 25.5 21.9 23.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 20.3 20.6 17.6 -1.1 33.4 38.3 20.6 22.3 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 20.8 20.5 21.0 -2.3 20.2 28.0 22.2 24.0 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 9.7 8.9 16.7 -2.3 19.1 29.0 10.7 12.7 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 20.5 19.6 19.5 -2.7 16.1 24.3 21.5 23.2 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 20.6 19.6 17.5 -2.6 16.1 25.9 21.4 23.2 26.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 20.9 20.1 18.9 -2.8 16.6 25.0 21.9 23.2 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 20.3 19.9 18.0 -2.2 21.2 29.4 21.0 22.1 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 21.3 21.4 19.3 -1.9 24.8 32.0 22.0 23.6 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 20.9 19.9 19.2 -2.6 15.2 24.9 21.8 24.2 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 21.7 21.0 20.3 -2.6 18.4 25.5 22.5 23.8 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 21.8 21.1 18.7 -2.4 21.5 28.4 22.5 24.2 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 20.5 20.5 20.7 -2.2 20.1 28.0 22.3 23.7 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 20.1 19.0 16.5 -2.7 15.5 25.5 21.2 23.0 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 20.8 20.3 21.0 -2.5 18.6 26.6 22.0 24.2 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 15.6 15.5 14.9 -2.1 21.8 31.3 16.6 18.6 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 20.8 20.3 20.3 -2.7 17.2 24.9 21.7 23.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 21.1 21.1 20.8 -2.0 22.7 29.7 22.1 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 21.1 19.9 20.7 -2.6 16.5 25.7 22.6 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 20.2 19.1 18.9 -2.7 15.0 24.7 21.6 23.3 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 21.1 20.7 19.5 -2.4 20.1 26.1 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 21.2 22.1 18.7 -0.7 37.7 42.6 21.4 23.1 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 21.0 20.5 20.4 -2.2 21.3 28.6 22.4 23.5 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 21.2 21.1 18.7 -2.4 20.2 26.8 21.7 23.2 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 15.0 13.5 15.8 -2.6 15.5 26.1 16.1 19.0 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 21.3 20.4 21.1 -2.3 21.1 28.0 22.0 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------