***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.4 14.9 0.3 57.4 55.9 12.4 13.1 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.9 14.5 0.1 53.4 52.5 12.3 12.8 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.1 15.0 0.3 60.3 55.9 13.8 14.8 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.3 12.3 0.3 62.0 57.4 8.7 9.7 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.0 12.6 0.3 61.4 56.6 10.9 11.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 10.8 11.1 10.7 0.8 73.7 68.7 9.9 10.3 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.3 14.6 0.2 55.5 53.2 12.6 13.3 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 5.7 5.5 10.4 0.6 68.9 63.3 4.7 5.3 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.9 12.8 0.4 64.9 59.6 12.0 12.6 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 12.8 12.8 11.2 0.6 68.2 63.2 12.0 12.5 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.5 12.2 0.4 65.8 59.6 11.6 12.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 10.7 10.7 11.3 0.5 67.2 61.7 9.9 10.2 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 12.2 12.3 11.1 0.6 68.1 63.7 11.1 11.6 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.3 12.7 0.5 65.2 61.4 12.6 13.2 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.6 13.8 0.3 62.9 58.3 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.2 11.7 0.4 64.2 59.8 12.0 12.6 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.4 14.2 0.1 51.4 51.0 12.8 13.3 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 11.5 11.6 10.5 0.6 68.7 64.5 10.2 11.0 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.3 14.6 0.2 54.7 53.8 12.3 13.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 7.5 7.5 8.5 0.6 70.4 64.6 6.3 7.0 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.9 14.1 0.3 62.1 57.2 12.1 12.6 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.7 14.3 0.2 55.9 54.5 11.9 12.5 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.1 14.5 0.3 57.5 56.2 12.0 13.0 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 13.1 12.9 12.6 0.5 67.4 62.7 12.1 12.6 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.2 13.5 0.2 57.7 54.3 12.0 13.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 11.7 11.8 10.8 0.8 74.5 68.5 10.7 11.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.4 14.2 0.3 58.2 55.1 12.5 13.1 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.7 12.8 0.4 62.6 58.6 10.8 11.5 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 9.9 10.1 9.8 0.6 69.1 64.5 8.6 9.6 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.5 14.8 0.2 56.4 53.9 12.5 13.4 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------